Above the Trend, Amid the Cycle: A Calm Reflection on Bitcoin’s “Pullback Moment”

This morning, Bitcoin prices once again saw fluctuations, dipping below the $77,000 mark and currently oscillating around $80,000. It seems the market has once more entered a “correction moment.” Facing such price volatility, many of us are probably pondering the same question:

This seemingly simple question is, in reality, quite complex — especially in the cryptocurrency market, where short-term volatility is intense and informational noise is intertwined, easily causing confusion. At moments like these, a calm and rational reflection is especially valuable, shifting our perspective away from immediate price fluctuations and toward the grander frameworks of “trend” and “cycle.”

Indeed, whether the Bitcoin “train” can continue moving forward is a common question among all its “passengers.” But as we’ll explore today, hidden “above trends, between cycles” are critical clues for answering this question.

Today, I will guide you through the framework of “trend and cycle,” helping you see clearly through the fog and calmly reflect on Bitcoin’s current correction. First, let’s clarify the basic concepts of “trend” and “cycle.”

A picture is worth a thousand words. The following chart quickly gives us an intuitive sense of “trend” and “cycle.” Note that the vertical axis below uses a…