ANZ forecasts RBA to raise cash rate by 25bps in November

ANZ, one of Australia’s four major banks, is calling for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points at its November 2026 meeting. If correct, it would push the rate to 4.60%, marking the first hike in a cycle that most market participants assumed was already over.

The call puts ANZ squarely at odds with the rest of the market. Polymarket odds suggest roughly an 86% probability that the RBA holds steady in November, leaving only a 14% chance of the hike ANZ is forecasting.

What the RBA has been signaling

The RBA’s August 2026 board minutes revealed something interesting: the central bank’s board actively debated whether a rate hike was warranted to combat lingering inflationary pressures. They ultimately decided to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, but the fact that a hike was on the table at all tells you the RBA hasn’t fully closed the door on tightening.

The RBA has consistently communicated that it wants to see inflation sustainably within its 2-3% target band before changing course. Governor Michele Bullock has repeatedly emphasized that decisions will be guided by incoming data rather than predetermined paths.

Why ANZ is the outlier

The broader consensus among major Australian banks tilts toward an extended hold through the remainder of 2026, with rate cuts potentially entering the picture in 2027. ANZ’s November hike call makes it the clear contrarian voice in the room.

Market positioning and what traders are watching

Most traders and institutional investors are positioned for stability, expecting the 4.35% rate to persist well into 2027 before cuts begin. If ANZ turns out to be right, a surprise hike would likely strengthen the Australian dollar, push bond yields higher, and put additional pressure on an already-stretched housing market.

The critical variable between now and November is the September quarter inflation data, typically released in late October. If that print comes in above expectations, ANZ’s lonely forecast could suddenly look prescient. If it comes in soft, the hold-and-eventually-cut camp will have its thesis confirmed.

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