ASML raises annual sales forecast amid surging AI demand

ASML, the Dutch company that makes the machines that make the chips that power basically everything, just told investors to expect even more money than previously anticipated. The semiconductor equipment giant raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion, up from a prior outlook of €34 billion to €39 billion.

The numbers behind the upgrade

ASML’s first quarter of 2026 came in stronger than expected across the board. Net sales hit €8.8 billion, with a gross margin of 53% and net income of €2.8 billion. Basic earnings per share landed at €7.15.

The company also pulled in €2.5 billion from installed-base revenue, which is the aftermarket business of servicing and upgrading machines already deployed in fabs around the world.

For context on how fast ASML has been growing, the company posted record full-year sales of €32.7 billion in 2025. That represented a 16% year-over-year increase. Now the midpoint of its 2026 guidance, €38 billion, would represent another significant jump from that record.

Why ASML matters to the AI supply chain

ASML makes extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, the only machines on Earth capable of printing semiconductor features below 7 nanometers. If you want to make the most advanced chips, like the ones Nvidia designs for AI workloads, you literally cannot do it without ASML’s equipment.

The raised guidance reflects what ASML is seeing in its order book from AI-focused clients. Companies racing to build out AI infrastructure need more advanced chips, which means their foundry partners need more ASML machines, which means ASML’s revenue goes up.

The China factor and what investors should watch

Not everything in ASML’s world is smooth sailing. The company continues to navigate a complicated geopolitical landscape, particularly around export restrictions to China. Western governments have progressively tightened rules around what chipmaking equipment can be sold to Chinese customers, and ASML sits directly in the crosshairs of those policies.

The key metric to watch going forward is whether ASML’s order intake continues to support guidance at the upper end of the range. A €4 billion spread between €36 billion and €40 billion leaves room for the company to either disappoint or significantly outperform.

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