Asteroid's Earth Impact Odds Plummet, Scientists Now Playing the Long Wait Game

You can breathe now, the Earth isn’t going to end by an asteroid hit—yet.

Astronomers monitoring a potentially catastrophic asteroid have seen its odds of hitting Earth drop dramatically, as new observations refined its predicted trajectory.

The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has fallen from 2.8% to just 0.16%, according to the latest data from the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre. This significant reduction comes after refined orbital calculations based on recent observations narrowed the "uncertainty window" of its path.

Despite the lower odds, scientists can't completely rule out a collision. The asteroid, estimated to be between 130–300 feet wide (40–90 meters), could potentially hit Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. An impact from an object this size—comparable to the one that caused the 1908 Tunguska event—could devastate a city if it struck a populated area, releasing energy equivalent to 7.7 megatons of TNT.

“If the asteroid entered the atmosphere over a populated region, an airburst of an object on the smaller side of the size range, about 130-200 feet (40-60 meters) could shatter windows or cause minor structural damage across a city,” NASA explained in a FAQ page. “An asteroid about 300 feet (90 meters) in size, which is much less likely, could cause more severe damage, potentially collapsing residential structures across a city and shattering windows across larger regions.”

Others, like former ISS crew member Chris Hadfield, describe the event using more dramatic language.

“Think of the destruction we wrought on each other in Hiroshima and Nagasaki—this is 500 times more powerful than that,” he told British digital radio station LBC News.

The space rock was first spotted on Christmas Day 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System or ATLAS in Chile, just two days after it passed Earth at a distance of 828,800 kilometers—or 0.0055400 astronomical units, if you want to get technical.

Impact probability has shifted

The asteroid's impact probability has fluctuated wildly since its discovery. In early January 2025, NASA reported a probability above 1%. By mid-February, this figure peaked at 3.1%—the highest ever recorded for an object of this size—before dropping to the current estimate.

Ground-based telescopes will continue tracking 2024 YR4 until early April 2025, when NASA argues it will become too faint to detect. The James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess its size and further refine orbit calculations.

After April, astronomers face a lengthy observation gap. The asteroid won't be visible again until 2028, meaning no updates to the impact probability will be possible for three years. This leaves the current 0.16% probability as the standing estimate until then.

While the current 0.16% probability is relatively low, it remains non-zero and significantly higher than many everyday risks. For comparison, the probability of solo mining a Bitcoin block is 0.098%—and it has happened, several times.

NASA and ESA have been releasing different probability estimates during their observations. NASA reported a drop from 3.1% to 1.5% on Feb. 19, while ESA cited the current 0.16% figure based on data as of Feb. 21.

These differences are likely due to variations in observational data, calculation methods, or timing of updates between the agencies among other factors.

The International Asteroid Warning Network and Space Mission Planning Advisory Group are considering next steps, given that the probability was above 1% earlier in February. These UN-endorsed organizations coordinate global efforts to detect and respond to potential asteroid threats.

Edited by James Rubin