Bank of America survey shows global investors most bullish since February

Global institutional investors haven’t been this optimistic in five months. Bank of America’s July 2026 Global Fund Manager Survey, published on July 14, shows sentiment surging to its highest level since February, with cash reserves dropping to record lows and a majority of fund managers betting the global economy can keep growing without tipping into recession.

The numbers behind the optimism

The survey, which collected responses from institutional investors between July 2 and July 9, paints a picture of aggressive risk-taking across the board.

Cash allocations plunged to 3.6%, down from 4.1% in June. BofA described this as “uber-low,” which is about as alarmed as a Wall Street research note gets. That drop was steep enough to activate the bank’s contrarian sell signal, a mechanical indicator that historically suggests equities are due for a pullback.

A record 54% of respondents now expect a “no landing” scenario for the global economy, meaning they believe growth will continue without a recession or meaningful slowdown. Only 2% of fund managers foresee a hard landing.

US equities have reached their highest overweight positioning since December 2024, meaning fund managers are allocating more to American stocks relative to their benchmark than at any point in roughly 18 months.

On the Fed front, 83% of fund managers believe the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates before the November 2026 US midterm elections.

The AI trade and its shadow

An AI bubble ranks as the top tail risk, with 45% of respondents identifying it as their biggest concern. Long bets on global semiconductor stocks represent the most crowded trade for the third consecutive month, with 82% of respondents indicating they hold those positions.

What this means for crypto markets

The survey didn’t mention cryptocurrency directly. Previous BofA surveys have documented persistent under-ownership of cryptocurrencies among institutional fund managers. When you combine that under-allocation with the kind of broad risk-on sentiment this survey reveals, the conditions for catch-up flows into digital assets start to look plausible.

The contrarian signal is the wrinkle that crypto traders should watch most carefully. BofA’s sell signal doesn’t predict an immediate crash, but it does suggest that the easy money in equities may have already been made this cycle.

The risk is that BofA’s sell signal proves correct and a broader risk-off move drags everything down, crypto included. A world where 54% of fund managers expect no landing is a world that hasn’t priced in much downside at all.

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