Bill Miller IV says investors are rotating out of AI and into crypto

Bill Miller IV, chairman and chief investment officer at Miller Value Partners, went on CNBC’s Closing Bell on August 24 to make a case that would have sounded contrarian six months ago but now feels increasingly mainstream: the AI trade is getting crowded, and smart money is rotating into crypto.

Bitcoin had just posted its strongest three-day rally since 2023 during the week ending August 25, trading between $78,500 and $80,000. Miller’s explanation for the move wasn’t about crypto-native catalysts. It was about what’s happening everywhere else.

The AI fatigue thesis

Miller framed the shift toward Bitcoin not as a speculative pivot but as a strategic one. Investors aren’t chasing the next meme coin rally. They’re looking for assets that sit outside the traditional equity-bond framework, particularly when that framework is under stress from multiple directions.

This perspective aligns with earlier commentary from macro investor Jordi Visser, who has similarly argued that capital would eventually flow from overvalued tech narratives into harder assets.

Government interventions as crypto catalysts

Miller pointed to a string of government actions that he believes created the conditions for Bitcoin’s recent surge. In late July, Japan and the US coordinated support for the yen, a move that rippled through global currency markets and forced repositioning across asset classes.

Then, during the week of August 18-22, the US Treasury doubled its buybacks of long-dated bonds. That decision alleviated yield pressures on the long end of the curve, which in turn triggered notable short liquidations across cryptocurrency markets. When shorts get squeezed, prices move up quickly, and Bitcoin’s three-day rally reflected exactly that dynamic.

The deficit backdrop

Perhaps the most striking data point Miller raised was the projected US budget deficit for 2026: $1.8 trillion. That figure is larger than Bitcoin’s entire market capitalization at current prices.

Miller characterized Bitcoin as a strategic hedge against the fiscal reality that deficit implies, essentially arguing that when governments run deficits of that magnitude, the resulting monetary accommodation erodes the purchasing power of traditional savings.

Miller Value Partners has previously maintained around 10% exposure to digital assets, treating Bitcoin as a long-term portfolio holding rather than a trading position.

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