Bitcoin at a Crossroads as Dollar Index Hits Critical Support Zone

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April 5, 2025 by

  • CarpeNoctom believes the recent drop in the US Dollar Index could trigger a Bitcoin bull run.
  • The DXY has fallen 8% in 80 days, but Bitcoin dropped 13% during the same period.
  • Trump’s tariffs have disrupted the usual relationship between the US Dollar and Bitcoin prices.

Expert trader CarpeNoctom believes that Bitcoin might experience a breakout due to the recent changes in the US Dollar Index (DXY). During the past 80 days, the DXY weakened by 8%, falling from its initial value of 110.176 to 101.267. A declining American dollar position traditionally provides proper market conditions for Bitcoin (BTC) and other high-risk financial instruments to experience price increases.

Recent macroeconomic occurrences have broken standard market behaviors throughout these past weeks. President Donald Trump‘s nationwide implementation of trade restrictions created simultaneous disturbances in the stock market and cryptocurrency trading conditions. The current market conditions are unpredictable because the BTC price has decreased by 13% while the DXY has dropped downward.

The current market situation presents an attractive business opportunity for CarpeNoctom. According to his analysis, the decrease of DXY from 103 to 101 levels might initiate a cryptocurrency market recovery. He also predicts that a BTC bull market will start after key support levels break down.

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Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin Strength in Global Shifts

According to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, the current macroeconomic shifts will lead to Bitcoin’s medium-term success. Hayes explains this trend to reduce international commerce and capital withdrawals from technology stocks by foreign investors. Bitcoin’s value, together with gold’s value, may strengthen because investors choose them as alternative value storage options.

Some of y'all are running scurred, but I LOVE TARIFFS, some chart porn to understand why.

Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for $BTC. pic.twitter.com/jc5eZ2VIEa

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 4, 2025

Hayes identifies how increased tariffs push the world economy to relocate its structure. According to him, central banks will increase money printing rates to handle domestic economic consequences, enabling scarce assets such as BTC to rise in value. The expert position indicates BTC will soon become independent of tech stock trends.

In his analysis, Hayes emphasizes that the depreciating dollar’s strength enables positive conditions for crypto market growth. The dollar depreciation brings about a lasting market possibility for Bitcoin to increase in value. The stability of BTC remains secure, according to Hayes, in a changing environment of world capital movement.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch

TraderMagus has identified two important price levels to monitor in the coming weeks: $80,000 and $90,000. A price moving above $90,000 with strong upward momentum could indicate the start of the following bull market phase. An unsuccessful rebound from $80,000 may trigger further price declines for Bitcoin.

According to the trader’s analysis, market consolidation will most likely persist in the upcoming short period. The trader recommends utilizing short-term approaches since high price movements will persist. The introduction of long positions will become more reliable when Bitcoin successfully regains the $90,000 price level.

Quick market thoughts for the nerds

I don't have interest in betting on any higher timeframe stuff until we either go lower(sub 80k) or show strength(over 90k). I'm still risk off from 102k

In the mean time intraday is the only thing that makes much sense in this environment.…

— Magus (@TraderMagus) April 4, 2025

According to Magus, the upcoming significant support level lies at $69,000 should the price fall short of reaching $80,000. Investors interested in buying for the long term may return at that price level. This direction will present substantial entry potential when market doubts dissipate, according to him.

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