Bitcoin Course at Risk in El Salvador? 2027 Election Rivals Challenge Nayib Bukele

El Salvador’s two main opposition parties named their candidates for the February 2027 presidential election. The move sets up a challenge to President Nayib Bukele’s third-term bid and the Bitcoin (BTC) strategy built around him.

The Nationalist Republican Alliance, ARENA, picked former lawmaker Maytee Iraheta. The Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front, or FMLN, tapped physician and union leader Rafael Aguirre. Neither rival has embraced Bukele’s Bitcoin strategy; in fact, both campaigns have openly criticized it as a fiscal failure.

Both now face a president who remains broadly popular after six years in office.

Bukele’s Third Term Tests a Rewritten Constitution

Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party nominated him this month. His running mate remains Vice President Felix Ulloa.

For ARENA, the ticket marks a historic first, with Iraheta and her running mate forming the party’s first all-female pairing. Neither party has proposed a rival Bitcoin policy, and both would need a broader coalition to challenge Bukele’s strategy in Congress. ARENA holds just two seats in the Legislative Assembly, and the FMLN has had none there since 2024. Whoever wins in February will govern until 2033.

That imbalance reflects Bukele’s dominant approval rating, which recently topped 94 percent in one national poll. Crime, not Bitcoin, appears to drive that support. Only 2.2% of Salvadorans call Bitcoin his biggest failure, according to one recent poll.

Bitcoin’s Legal Status Already Shifted

Notably, Bitcoin is no longer a mandatory legal tender in El Salvador. Following a $1.4 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan agreement in February 2025, the government removed the requirement for businesses to accept the token. This pivot effectively returned the US dollar to its status as the nation’s sole official currency for everyday commerce

Still, the National Bitcoin Office kept buying roughly one BTC per day. The government boosted its gold reserves in January. The IMF has repeatedly warned that the Bitcoin push carries fiscal and governance risks. It has also been said that the strategy has not measurably improved financial inclusion for unbanked Salvadorans.

El Salvador’s own Bitcoin Office tracker shows holdings climbing to roughly 7,730 BTC as of July 27. That is up from about 7,700 BTC a month earlier, a steady daily staircase that confirms Bukele’s one-BTC-a-day pledge is still active.

Bitcoin Office tracker El Salvador. Source: bitcoin.gob.sv

A Reserve Exposed to Bitcoin’s Swings

Therefore, the next president inherits a bet still tied to the market. Bitcoin trades near $65,300, and its price outlook for August flags further swings ahead. The token remains roughly half its October 2025 record above $126,000.

That decline already erased nearly $300 million from the state’s holdings earlier this year. Some analysts, meanwhile, tie Bitcoin’s next move to pending US regulation rather than El Salvador’s politics.

Ultimately, February’s vote will settle the matter. The next administration, whoever leads it, will decide whether that accumulation continues or comes to a halt.

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