Bitcoin Near ‘Euphoria’ Boundary: What Happens After A Breach?

4 months ago 47

On-chain data shows Bitcoin is trading near a level that has historically acted as the boundary for the ‘euphoria’ phase of the market.

Bitcoin Is Not Far From This Long-Term Holder Cost Basis Level

According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, BTC’s recent consolidation has been near the historical boundary between the ‘equilibrium’ and ‘euphoria’ phases of the bull market.

The level in question multiplies the Realized Price for the long-term holders. The Realized Price here refers to an on-chain metric that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of the investors on the Bitcoin network.

When the cryptocurrency’s spot price is higher than this indicator, the investors can be assumed to be holding a net amount of unrealized profit. Similarly, the asset’s value under the metric could suggest the dominance of losses on the blockchain.

In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price, specifically for the “long-term holders” (LTH), is of interest. The LTHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who have held onto their coins for more than 155 days without having sold/transferred them on the network.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the LTHs, as well as a couple of its multiples, over the past decade:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH Realized Price is trading around $21,800 right now. This is significantly lower than the current spot price of the asset, so this cohort would be holding considerable profits currently.

Statistically, the longer an investor holds their BTC stack, the less likely they become to sell the coins at any point. As such, the LTHs, who tend to hold for long periods, include the most resolute holders in the market.

This group doesn’t react easily to market events, like rallies or crashes. That said, when their gains grow very large, even these HODLers start getting tempted by the allure of profit-taking.

Historically, this has happened as the Bitcoin market has approached the ‘euphoria’ phase. Glassnode defines it as that market phase when the price breaks above the 3.5x multiplier of the LTH Realized Price.

This level currently stands at $76,400, just above the consolidation range the cryptocurrency has recently been stuck in. The chart shows that during the past two bull runs, the asset’s price blew up when it broke past this level.

It remains to be seen how long Bitcoin takes to breach this boundary to escape from the current ‘equilibrium’ phase and fill investors with euphoria.