Bitcoin price analysis after Mt. Gox refunds

Mt. Gox has already started reimbursing its creditors, so it is already possible to make an initial analysis of the impact on the price of Bitcoin. 

As expected, there was a decline, which however seems to be lower than anticipated. 

The refunds of Mt. Gox and the analysis of the price of Bitcoin

According to the data from Arkham Intelligence, more than 40,000 BTC have already been transferred to exchanges from the known Mt. Gox wallets in recent days.

Another 37,000 would appear to have been transferred today, so more than half of the 142,000 BTC that were to be distributed should already have been transferred to the exchanges. 

However, it is not certain that the exchanges have already credited them to the creditors’ accounts. 

In fact, for this direct distribution of BTC to creditors, the exchange that went bankrupt in 2014 has chosen an indirect reimbursement method. 

Since they needed to pass all repayable creditors through a KYC procedure, they opted for a distribution through centralized exchanges. 

In this way, the creditors were effectively forced to go through the KYC procedures of the few selected exchanges for indirect distribution, and the Mt. Gox trustee initiated the transfer of BTC from their wallets to those of the exchanges chosen by the creditors. 

Each creditor could choose from a very limited number of exchanges through which they could receive the refund in BTC, and had to communicate to the bankruptcy trustee the details of their account on the exchange to request the refund. 

Once the BTC are sent from Mt. Gox to the exchange, it subsequently credits them to the creditors’ accounts according to what was established by the reimbursement plan approved by the judge.

The Bitcoin restituiti 

As of today, it is only known how many BTC have been sent from Mt. Gox to the exchanges, and to which exchanges they have been sent (mainly Kraken). 

It is not yet known how many BTC have already been credited by the exchanges to the real creditors, nor how many of these have already been eventually sold. 

Taking Kraken as a reference point, according to Arkham Intelligence data, the number of BTC held in their known addresses rose from 168,000 on July 6 to 171,000 on July 16. Subsequently, it fell to 167,500$.

This suggests that many BTC sent from Mt. Gox to Kraken for distribution to creditors were actually withdrawn by the creditors themselves once received, and perhaps not sold. 

It should be noted that those BTC creditors of Mt. Gox actually lost them more than 10 years ago, when the price of a Bitcoin was less than $1,000.

Those who receive funds after many years that they had become accustomed to considering lost, but which in the meantime have appreciated by more than 6,000%, can easily be induced to keep them and not sell them, at least initially. Therefore, it would not be surprising at all if the BTC received in this way are largely withdrawn to be stored in a non-custodial wallet, and not sold immediately. 

The impact on the price of Bitcoin from the Mt. Gox refunds

Examining the trend of BTC price from the beginning of the month to today, it is discovered that after falling from $63,000 to $54,000, starting from Saturday the 13th it began to rise again. 

In particular, on Monday it had abundantly risen above $68,000, even if only for a short period, precisely in the same period when Mt. Gox had started transferring its BTC to the exchanges. 

Yesterday, however, there was a decline. 

The price first dropped below $67,000, and then also below $66,000.

The current value is in line with that of July 19, that is, only 5 days ago, therefore it can be stated that the impact of the distribution of BTC from Mt. Gox on the price of Bitcoin for now is substantially irrelevant. 

It should not be forgotten that yesterday was the day of the launch of the new Ethereum spot ETFs on the US exchanges, and just yesterday there was a drop in the price of ETH by 1.5% which brought it from $3,500 to $3,400.

It is very likely that this drop was triggered by the fear that the Grayscale Ethereum Trust would start liquidating its ETH, or that this drop caused the price of Bitcoin to fall. 

Therefore, at this moment it seems that the trend of BTC price is still mainly influenced by other factors, and not by the distribution of Mt. Gox BTC. 

In fact, the fear&greed index of the crypto market yesterday only dropped from 71 to 69, thus remaining in the positive sentiment zone.

The forecasts for the future

In light of all this, the predictions of the possible start of a new bullrun in autumn are strengthened. 

In particular, the hypothesis that the price of Bitcoin could be heading towards surpassing the fateful $100,000 is circulating again, although more and more analysts argue that this could happen only next year. 

It should not be forgotten that historically the three great bullrun of the BTC price have always occurred the year following the halving and the presidential elections in the USA, and 2024 was precisely the year of the halving, while in November it will be the year of the USA presidential elections. 

Therefore, if the historical trend were to repeat itself, the great bull run is expected for 2025, when the US dollar should start to weaken after having strengthened during the election year.