Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC May Drop to $68K if $80K Support Fails

Bitcoin continues to hover near the $82,000–$85,000 range as buyers struggle to regain momentum, while key on-chain data hints at interesting underlying dynamics.

Technical Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC is attempting to defend the $80K support zone after another rejection from the $88,000 resistance and the 200-day moving average nearby, which now acts as a dynamic barrier. The price remains range-bound between $80,000 and $88,000, with no clear directional resolution yet.

The RSI has also pulled back below the midline after failing to break above 60, showing a lack of strong momentum. Buyers need to see a confirmed daily close above $88,000 to invalidate the recent lower highs and reattempt the $92,000 level. On the downside, any clean break below $80,000 may open the path toward $74,000 and even $68,000.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, BTC was recently rejected sharply from the red resistance zone around $88,000 after consolidating below it for several days. This strong rejection, followed by a swift drop back into the $82K range, indicates short-term supply remains strong.

Moreover, the RSI has cooled off from overbought levels and is now trending near 40, suggesting a loss in bullish momentum. For now, $80,000 remains the line in the sand, while the area between $86,500–$88,000 continues to cap upside attempts. A break from either side of this range is likely to trigger the next impulsive move.

On-Chain Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

Miner Reserve (EMA 30)

The Miner Reserve continues its long-term decline, marking one of the most sustained distribution trends by miners in years. This steady sell-side pressure from miners suggests they’ve been taking profit consistently throughout the rally, with the reserve now at multi-year lows near 1.81M BTC.

While this persistent reduction hasn’t caused a structural breakdown in price, it does add a layer of supply pressure that could weigh on rallies, especially if retail demand softens. It also implies miners may be expecting lower prices or simply preparing liquidity ahead of the halving, making this a key metric to monitor in the coming weeks.

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