Bitcoin Price Forecast Post Halving : Bullish or bearish ?

Bitcoin halving event is only three days away, expected to occur on April 20,2024, having captured the attention of both enthusiasts and investors worldwide. Throughout history, halvings has led to shifts in the price movement of BTC. Various cryptocurrency experts have shared their various predictions on the direction of Bitcoin price after the halving. In this article, we will delve deeper into various insights and forecasts shared by prominent figures in the crypto industry, to clearly understand the potential bearish and bullish scenarios.

Tim Draper’s Optimistic Forecast

Venture capitalist Tim Draper anticipates Bitcoin’s value tripling by the end of 2024, reaching $250,000, by the end of the year. He attributes this growth to inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

Draper believes that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has renewed interest in Bitcoin and provided investors with a more accessible way to invest in the cryptocurrency. He sees Bitcoin as a hedge against devaluing fiat currencies and believes its finite supply and increasing adoption will make it more appealing to the masses.

Draper emphasizes the significance of the fourth  halving, stating that it will lead to a decrease in supply, an increase in demand, and a rise in price. Overall, Draper views Bitcoin as a secure asset against inflation and recommends investors allocate single digit percentages towards it for hedging purposes.

Michael Saylor’s Confidence in Bitcoin’s Potential

Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, shares a bullish view on Bitcoin’s future, predicting that in the future, Bitcoin will be a more valuable asset than gold. He stated that Bitcoin has the attributes of gold but none of the defects, making it a superior investment. He predicts that Bitcoin will divert money from other assets, such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, and become a popular choice for investment funds.

Saylor also highlighted the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which will reduce the supply of new bitcoins entering the market, potentially driving up the price to meet investor demand.

Cathie Wood’s Bullish Outlook

Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, is optimistic that the price of bitcoin has the potential to reach $3.8 million due to rising institutional adoption and the introduction of new ETF offerings. Earlier this year, she forecasted that Bitcoin would reach $1.5 million by 2030, but recent events have greatly improved her forecast.

According to her analysis, investing more than 5% of their portfolios in Bitcoin could potentially generate an extra $2.3 million in value for institutional investors

Ever since the SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs for companies like Ark, there has been a sharp increase in demand for bitcoin, leading to new highs in ETF inflows. Experts in the industry predict that the bitcoin halving event could increase demand due to a supply shortage.

Wood anticipates that the halving will be similar to previous occurrences, during which the price of bitcoin surged by thousands of percentage points. She thinks that the financial environment surrounding bitcoin is only starting to develop and holds significant potential for expansion in the future

Richard Teng’s Positive Prediction

Binance new CEO, Richard Teng, predicts bitcoin (BTC) will surpass $80,000 by the end of the year, due to decreasing supply and growing demand. The crypto market has seen record highs following the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S., with bitcoin hitting $73,000 last week.

Institutional adoption is driving the market rally, leading financial firms like Standard Chartered to raise their year-end bitcoin target to $150,000. Teng expects more investment from family offices and endowment funds in bitcoin ETFs. Despite volatility, the CEO believes the market’s ups and downs will ultimately benefit crypto.

JP Morgan’s Cautious Approach

While other industry experts have put forward their bullish predictions, JP Morgan analysts have taken a more cautious approach on the price of BTC after halving. The analysts predict that the upcoming Bitcoin halving event will negatively impact miners’ profitability due to reduced rewards and higher production costs. This could lead to a decrease in Bitcoin prices, potentially falling to $42,000 post-halving.

The bank notes that historically, Bitcoin production costs have set a lower boundary for its prices. The estimated production cost range is currently around $26,500, which could double to $53,000 post-halving, potentially dropping to $42,000 as the euphoria surrounding the event subsides. A 20% decline in the Bitcoin network’s hashrate after the halving could further contribute to this price decrease.

Miners with lower electricity costs and more efficient rigs are more likely to survive in this environment, while those with high production costs may struggle. Larger publicly listed miners are expected to have a better chance of enduring this challenging period and increasing their market share post-halving, similar to trends seen in 2022.

Currently, BTC price is trading at $64,231.66 having increased by 2.42% in the last day. With a market cap of $1.26 trillion, Bitcoin has experienced a 12.93% in trading volume to reach $39.59 billion.

Conclusion

The upcoming Bitcoin halving is a special event to the community, as it partly determines the future of the cryptocurrency. Industry experts have tabled their various views concerning how the halving event could potentially affect the price trajectory of BTC. While some expect a bullish increase due to higher institutional adoption and scarcity, others are more careful, considering possible production decreases and shifts in market dynamics. With the halving event approaching, it is crucial for investors and enthusiasts to stay updated and ready for potential outcomes in the constantly changing cryptocurrency industry.

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