Bitcoin Price Will Hit $123K if These 4 Conditions Are Met

Bitcoin price is down No data found for bitcoin on 2 minutes ago% today and trades at No data found for bitcoin on 2 minutes ago. This pullback has undone 50% of the gains noted after the FOMC meeting and will likely continue this descent as month-end volatility kicks in. With the long-term outlook still bullish and historical data signaling more gains in February, will BTC reach new highs at $123K? Let’s explore.

Will Bitcoin Price Hit $123K?

Since mid-November 2024, Bitcoin price has been moving sideways. Although BTC has attempted to leave this range multiple times, it has lacked strength. As a result, multiple new highs have been created in the past 78 days of the ongoing consolidation. The most recent ATH of $110K was set up on January 20.

Between November 14 and 22, 2024, Bitcoin shot up nearly 14% to $99,660. Using Fibonacci tool to this trend shows the next ATH was formed at 161.8% Fib level. Considering a similar outlook, the next ATH could form around $123K.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

4 Conditions Could That Can Propel BTC to $123K

To achieve a new all-time high at $123K or beyond here are four changes or developments that need to occur.

Bitcoin price needs to overcome the $105.5K resistance level. This level is where BTC faced rejection, pausing the post-FOMC rally.

The second condition that hints BTC could reach a new ATH is the divergence between retail and institutional investors. Data from Santiment shows that wallets holding 0 to 10 BTC, belonging to retail investors have been dropping. On the other hand, wallets holding 100 to 1000 BTC have been accumulating. Typically, retail investors react much more to short-term noise and tend to capitulate before the price reaches new highs. Whale accumulation hints that the uptrend is not over and a new ATH is possible.

Retail vs. Whale Wallets

Whale transaction activity, ie., tranfers worth $100K, have dropped since January 24. As noted in the image a spike in this metric often helps drive prices higher. On the contrary, a drop suggests that whales are not interested and is likely going to lead to a period of consolidation or drop. Once this indicator sees a reversal, Bitcoin price has a high probability to reach ATHs.

Whale Transaction Count

From a historical standpoint, the average monthly return for January is around 4%. But February’s average return hovers around 15.66%. Hence, the chances of a new ATH in February, potentially at $123K are high.

Monthly Returns

Out of the above four conditions, two are met, Bitcoin needs to overcome $105K hurdle and whale transctions greater than $100K needs to pause its freefall and spike again. Once all four conditions are met Bitcoin price could set up a new all-time high at $123K.

Key Levels to Watch as BTC Price Drops

With the end of January, investors can expect the volatility to remain high. Since Thursday’s $106,450 high, Bitcoin price has shed 2.04%. Investors can expect this short-term downtrend to continue around the New York open.

In such a case, here are some key demand levels to watch: $101.5K, $100K, $98.2K and $96.8K.

• $101.5K  is the confluence of the 78-day range’s upper limit and the current week’s VWAP.
• Beyond this, the 2025 VWAP at $100K and the 78-day consolidation’s VWAP at $98.2K are the next key support levels.
• The last and the most important support level is the highest volume traded level in the past 78 days at $96.8K.

These key support levels are good places to accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) at a discount. A bounce at these levels could lead to an ATH. Here is a key resistance level to watch: $105K. Overcoming this level will allow Bitcoin price to revisit the current ATH of $110K and set up a new one at $123K.

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