Bitcoin remains in death cross as soft jobs data cuts rate-hike odds

The US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, a number that landed like a cold shower on a market bracing for modest growth. Economists had penciled in a gain of roughly 80,000. Instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered the labor market’s worst print in months, and the ripple effects reached every corner of risk assets, Bitcoin included.

Rate-hike odds for the September FOMC meeting dropped sharply on the back of the report. CME FedWatch and other prediction tools reflected the shift almost immediately, with traders repricing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would tighten further from the current 3.5%-3.75% range.

The death cross won’t quit

Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average is tracking below its 200-day moving average, a pattern traders call a death cross. It’s one of the more ominous signals in technical analysis, essentially a flashing neon sign that recent momentum is deteriorating faster than the longer-term trend.

A payroll miss with context

July’s decline didn’t come out of nowhere. June’s payroll figure was already weak and subsequently revised downward, making the back-to-back softness harder to dismiss as noise. Unemployment held at 4.1%.

The Fed held rates steady at its July meeting, which concluded just days before the payrolls data dropped.

For context, the fact that BTC is hovering in the low $60K range rather than surging on easing expectations tells you something about the current appetite for risk in crypto specifically.

What traders are watching next

The September FOMC meeting is now the gravitational center for every macro-sensitive trade in the market. The Consumer Price Index report is the next major catalyst. If inflation continues to moderate alongside weakening employment, the case for a rate cut, rather than just a hold, starts to build.

Market analysts have flagged that Bitcoin needs more than just a pause in rate hikes to break out of its current range. It needs active easing bets to gain traction, the kind of pricing that signals traders expect rate cuts, not merely the absence of further increases.

The $60K level has acted as support multiple times in recent weeks. A confirmed break above $65K on volume would invalidate the bearish technical setup. A sustained move below $60K would confirm it.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.