Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Over? Onchain Metrics Signal Bearish Phase

• CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicts Bitcoin may stay bearish or sideways for 6-12 months.
• The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision could push Bitcoin higher or deepen its decline.
• Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin could hit $200K by the year-end, while Peter Schiff warns of a $20K crash.

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum might have hit a dead end, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. In a March 17 post on X, he made a stark reversal from his earlier stance, now predicting six to twelve months of sideways or bearish price action. “Bitcoin bull cycle is over,” he declared, adding that “every on-chain metric signals a bear market.”

Over the past weeks, BTC has struggled to maintain higher levels. It currently hovers between $80,000 and $85,000, having dropped from its $100,000 peak. Factors contributing to the fall include a sharp decline in fresh liquidity and ongoing whale sell-offs.

According to Ju realized cap-based indicators confirm the drying up of liquidity. Despite significant volume at the $100K mark, Bitcoin failed to push higher. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have also turned negative for three straight weeks, reinforcing fears of a prolonged bearish cycle.

Source: Ki Young Ju

Federal Reserve’s Decision Looms Large

A major market-moving event is on the horizon—the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this Wednesday. Most analysts expect rates to remain unchanged, but traders have priced in two to three rate cuts later this year. A dovish Fed stance could reignite bullish sentiment, while a tougher approach may accelerate the downward trend.

However, BlackRock warns that even if the Fed cuts rates, inflation could limit the extent of those cuts. “Markets have priced in about two to three 25 basis point rate cuts this year, versus expectations for just one earlier this year,” BlackRock stated. “We think this reflects U.S. recession fears even though economic conditions don’t point to a downturn.”

In a worst-case scenario, prolonged economic uncertainty could erode investor confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin. If equity markets continue to slide, Bitcoin may follow suit. Crypto volatility could see a downside explosion, amplifying price declines.

Can Bitcoin Hit $200K or Crash to $20K?

The uncertainty has led to wildly differing forecasts. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan sees BTC potentially reaching $200,000 by year-end—if the Fed provides economic relief. But he also warns that a stricter policy could send prices crashing back to $72,000.

Veteran investor Peter Schiff takes a more bearish view. He believes a Nasdaq crash could pull Bitcoin down to just $20,000. “A drop of that magnitude would accelerate Bitcoin’s collapse to much lower levels,” Schiff wrote.

The Nasdaq has already fallen 12% in recent weeks. If the index drops 20%, BTC could settle around $65,000. However historical trends suggest deeper corrections. The dot-com crash saw Nasdaq plunge 80%, while the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 selloff wiped out 55% and 30%, respectively.

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