Bitcoin’s Price Volatility Signals Potential Bull Run by Q3: Key Metrics Explained

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Bitcoin’s recent price volatility, dipping to $53,500 amid significant sell-offs by the German government and Mt. Gox creditors, has sparked investor attention. Despite this, the price has rebounded to $57,500, indicating resilience in on-chain metrics. Major US institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are buying Bitcoin ETFs despite the price drop.

However, one analysis reveals that the market will turn bullish by Q3. Let’s examine the key metrics in detail. 

Bitcoin Puell Multiple Predicts Bullish Momentum

In the current downturn, this bullish analysis is a breeze for investors looking for an entry in Q3. CryptoQuant’s analysis using the Bitcoin Puell Multiple suggests a potential end to the current correction phase within the ongoing bull market. However, historically this data reveals significant drops in the Puell Multiple often an indicator of strong price rallies, as observed during previous bull cycles in 2016 and 2020. 

June 2024 witnessed substantial miner capitulation, with profitability plummeting by 7.8% since the April halving event. Daily miner revenue dropped sharply from $78 million to $26 million, underscoring market stress among miners.

It’s not over yet…

Many quickly declare the end of this bull market, selling their long-term holdings in capitulation. However, a deep dive into on-chain data, compared with previous cycles, indicates that we are still in the early stages of this new bull cycle. But technically, crypto cycles begin post-halving, with an average duration of over 500 days. Hence, we’re currently 79 days post the 2024 BTC halving. If we zoom out on the charts, there’s still a long way to go in this bull cycle.

A Buying Opportunity?

Adding to the bullish sentiment, Santiment’s data shows a decline of 566,000 non-empty Bitcoin wallets since mid-June, reflecting sell-offs by short-term holders amid market uncertainty. This reduction, often seen at market bottoms, historically presents buying opportunities for patient investors.

Similarly, both the 30-day and 365-day Bitcoin MVRV indicators are also currently in the negative zone, indicating the best time to buy Bitcoin. This perfect match in the past has led to substantial returns for investors who entered the market during such periods. 

Wait for Q3!

With multiple indicators aligning towards a bullish sentiment, including the anticipated start of a bull run in Q3 2024 based on the Puell Multiple, Bitcoin appears poised for potential price recovery. Investor caution remains advised amid ongoing market volatility and regulatory developments. So far the Puell Multiple indicator has perfectly predicted the bottom, bear trap, and peak of BTC in the past three cycles. 

Based on the Puell Multiple indicators, we are currently in a bear trap and can expect a bullish move from this level.