Bitcoin Wavers as Fed Projects Two Rate Cuts in 2025, Holds Rates Steady

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, prolonging a months-long pause on rate cuts amid economic uncertainty fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The U.S. central bank’s decision was widely expected, leaving its benchmark rate at 4.25% to 4.50% after the Fed began slashing borrowing costs in the final quarter of last year.

In a statement, the Fed emphasized a wait-and-see approach on how Trump’s policy maneuvers—which have battered stocks and crypto—could draw out its inflation fight.

“Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.,” the Fed said. “The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook.”

An updated forecast weighing expectations from 19 Fed officials showed two rate cuts this year, effectively matching policymakers’ outlook in December. The Fed’s previous projections had poured cold water on risk assets, as Fed officials had previously penciled in four rate cuts.

In December, however, one Fed official foresaw as many as five rate cuts this year, or a reduction of 1.5% in the Fed’s benchmark rate. On Wednesday, no fed official envisioned more than three rate cuts this year, suggesting a firmer policy outlook.

The president’s approach to tariffs has sparked inflation concerns, but some fear that it may also hamstring U.S. economic growth as consumers and businesses face elevated costs. 

The price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which rose on Wednesday morning, ticked down after the central bank stood pat for a third time.

Bitcoin’s price had still jumped 3.2% over the past day to $84,000. The price of Ethereum and Solana meanwhile rose 7.7% to $2000 and 5% to $129.50, respectively, according to the crypto data provider Coingecko.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in cooler than expected a week ago, indicating that inflation eased slightly last month. The widely watched inflation gauge, which rose 2.8% in the twelve months through February, was above the Fed’s 2% goal.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to show a 2.7% annual increase later this month, per Trading Economics.

Prior to Wednesday's interest rate decision, Fed futures traders foresaw a 51% chance that the central bank cuts interest rates in June, according to CME FedWatch. Those remained a tossup as market participants mulled the Fed’s latest projections.