Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan identify leading ETF themes for 2026

The hottest trade on Wall Street isn’t a chatbot or a chip stock. It’s the stuff that keeps the chatbots running: power plants, data centers, rockets, and missile systems.

Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan have both zeroed in on AI, infrastructure, defense, space, and nuclear as the dominant ETF themes for 2026, reflecting a market that has moved past the initial AI hype cycle and into a harder, more capital-intensive phase of the buildout.

The numbers behind the narrative

Thematic ETFs now manage over $256 billion across hundreds of funds, and the sectors attracting the most attention are the ones solving AI’s real-world bottlenecks. J.P. Morgan projects total AI-related capital expenditures will hit $5.5 trillion by 2030, revised upward from an earlier estimate of $5.1 trillion.

For 2026 alone, hyperscaler capex is projected at $650 billion, with operating cash flow expected to surpass $900 billion by 2027.

Nuclear-focused funds have been among the biggest beneficiaries. Funds like NUKZ climbed roughly 64% in 2025, driven almost entirely by AI data center power demand. The logic is straightforward: training and running large language models requires enormous amounts of electricity, and nuclear provides reliable, low-carbon baseload power that renewables alone can’t match.

Space is the other breakout sector. Launch costs have dropped by approximately 95% compared to 65 years ago, making orbital infrastructure increasingly viable for AI-driven experimentation, communications, and surveillance.

Why defense and infrastructure keep climbing

Defense ETFs are pulling in steady allocations as geopolitical tensions remain elevated and military budgets rise across NATO countries and the Indo-Pacific. The investment thesis isn’t purely about conflict risk. It’s about supply-chain resilience, a concept that has become central to how institutional investors think about portfolio construction after years of disruption.

J.P. Morgan ETF strategist Jon Maier has noted the evolving nature of investment themes toward those surrounding AI, describing a shift that integrates traditional industries into the AI ecosystem.

What this shift means for investors

The nuclear renaissance is a particularly telling example. A sector that was broadly uninvestable a decade ago, weighed down by Fukushima-era regulatory backlash and public skepticism, has been rehabilitated almost entirely by the energy demands of AI. When Microsoft signed a deal to restart Three Mile Island’s Unit 1 reactor, it signaled that even the most cautious corporate buyers had come around on nuclear as a practical necessity.

The space sector carries its own set of uncertainties. While declining launch costs have opened up new possibilities, the commercial space economy is still heavily dependent on a handful of launch providers and government contracts.

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