Broadcom forecasts AI semiconductor revenue growth to $230B by 2028

Broadcom just told Wall Street it expects its AI semiconductor revenue to hit roughly $230 billion by fiscal 2028. That’s a fourfold increase from the $58 billion the company expects to pull in this fiscal year.

CEO Hock Tan dropped the forecast during Broadcom’s fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call on September 2, alongside a set of quarterly results that showed AI is no longer a side hustle for the company.

The numbers behind the ambition

Broadcom’s Q3 FY2026 results were a record-breaker by most measures. Total revenue came in at $29.6 billion, up 86% year-over-year. The AI semiconductor division, which includes custom accelerators and AI networking chips, generated $16.7 billion in the quarter alone. That’s a 221% surge compared to the same period last year.

For Q4, the company guided AI semiconductor revenue to $21.7 billion. If that lands, it would cap off a fiscal year with roughly $58 billion in AI chip sales.

Tan projected that AI semiconductor revenue would roughly double to $115 billion in fiscal 2027, then double again to approximately $230 billion in fiscal 2028. He also estimated that adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2028 would surpass $30.

Custom chips accounted for about 73% of Q3 AI revenue. Six key customers are driving this demand, including Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta. These companies are making what Tan described as multi-gigawatt-scale deployment commitments. On that front, Broadcom says it has secured supplies of cutting-edge wafers, high bandwidth memory, and substrates through 2028.

Wall Street’s mixed feelings

Despite the blockbuster AI numbers, Broadcom’s overall Q3 revenue slightly missed analyst expectations. The stock experienced a dip in the aftermath.

Analyst projections for Broadcom’s 2028 AI revenue show some dispersion. While Tan pegged the number at $230 billion, some analyst estimates land closer to $200 billion. RBC has projected the total AI semiconductor market could exceed $550 billion by 2028. If that figure holds, Broadcom’s $230 billion target would represent roughly 40% of the entire AI chip market.

The Nvidia alternative play

Broadcom’s positioning in AI semiconductors is fundamentally different from Nvidia’s. Where Nvidia sells standardized GPUs, Broadcom designs custom chips tailored to each hyperscaler’s specific architecture. Google has its TPUs. Amazon has its Trainium chips. Meta and OpenAI are investing in custom silicon. Broadcom sits in the middle of many of these efforts, providing design expertise and networking technology.

The company’s AI networking business provides a dual revenue stream: as AI clusters grow, the networking fabric connecting chips becomes as critical as the compute itself, and Broadcom’s networking chips handle that interconnect layer.

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