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The $BTC price poked its head through the bear market trendline on Monday, reaching as high as $70,400 before an eventual rejection. Was this just another test of the crucial downtrend line before the next big downside leg, or could the bulls come back and force their way through?
Bulls not ready for breakout yet
Source: TradingView
The 4-hour $BTC chart shows just how close the bulls are coming to actually break through the 6 month + trendline that has kept the $BTC price in a downward direction that has not let up since the all-time high back in early October 2025.
For bulls eager to jump on a possible breakout bandwagon, the best advice is probably to proceed with caution. Yes, it might be pointed out that the head and shoulders pattern has been made invalid, but in reality this is not so. On higher time frames, such as the daily, the neckline is still holding as resistance, as it is now in this lower time frame.
In addition, the major $69,000 horizontal level has reclaimed resistance once again. As can be seen in the chart above, all three bearish elements; the bear market trendline, the major $69K resistance, and the neckline of the head and shoulders, are coming together and form a very strong barrier. This will be difficult to penetrate.
One other factor to add on behalf of the bears, is that short-term momentum indicators are generally on their way down. It may be that the bulls have to wait for this potential down wave to finish, and for the Stochastic RSI indicators to reset, before the next breakout attempt can be made.
Not much between breakout and breakdown
Source: TradingView
The daily chart reveals just how close to the brink the $BTC price is. This probably goes both ways. One more short step to the upside and the breakout is underway, but if this does become a more significant corrective phase, the important $66,000 horizontal support comes under duress and a fall to $60,000 could be on the cards.
If the breakout does take place, it needs to be borne in mind that a potential retest and confirmation of the trendline could occur afterwards, perhaps bringing the price lower again before a resumption of the breakout move.
The bottom of the chart shows the MACD indicator. It can be observed that the indicator line (blue) has crossed up above the signal line (red) and that an initial small green bar has appeared. This bodes well for a bullish move.
Current bear market following 2022 very closely
Source: TradingView
Once the bear trendline is broken is that it? Will the $BTC price just push up from there and eventually back to the all-time high? Not necessarily. In the case of the previous bull market, this was the case. There were no more lower lows after the trend breakout, and the price went into a bull market.
In the 2018 bear market the price did also rise once it had broken through the downtrend, but after a fierce rally, the price dropped and there was a long sideways movement of more than a year before the price was able to get back above that previous rally high. It must also be noted that the Covid crash took the price almost all the way back to the bear market low again.
If we compare both of these bear markets with the current one, the 2022 bear market is the one that the current bear market appears to be following very closely. If this continues to be the case, a breakout would likely be imminent, followed by a sharp return back to the trendline in order to confirm the breakout, and then the start of the new bull market.
At the bottom of the weekly chart above, the MACD looks as though it could be about to signal a change in trend, as the blue indicator line crosses above the red signal line.
All appears to be ready. That said, was it only last week that all appeared to be ready for another big crash to the downside? Things can change in a very small window of time, and this could happen again. Trade with the utmost caution.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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