Bulgaria’s elections Sunday could secure Radev’s path to prime minister

Bulgaria’s parliamentary elections this Sunday have pushed Rumen Radev’s chances of becoming the next Prime Minister to 93.9% YES, up from 74% a week ago.

The surge in Radev’s odds tracks his Progressive Bulgaria party’s polling lead over GERB. Radev’s market has moved sharply since the December 2025 government resignation deepened the country’s political instability. With 240 seats up for grabs, the market is trading $4,250 in USDC daily.

Liquidity sits at $6,170 to move the odds five percentage points, a reasonable depth for this contract. The largest recent move was a 9-point drop at 10:05 AM, though Radev’s odds rebounded afterward.

Forming a coalition is the main obstacle. If Progressive Bulgaria secures a majority, it could break the cycle of fragmented governments that has defined recent Bulgarian politics. But failure in coalition talks would still block Radev’s path to the premiership, even with a strong election result.

Watch for exit polls and post-election coalition announcements on Sunday. Any coalition agreement or party endorsement could move this market fast.

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