Canadian companies’ shares fall after Trump threatens to ban their products from US federal contracts

President Trump took a swipe at Canada’s corporate sector on September 9, posting on Truth Social that he wants Canadian-origin products removed from the US General Services Administration’s Multiple Award Schedules. Those schedules are the backbone of federal procurement, facilitating more than $50B in annual government purchasing. Canadian stocks with US government exposure promptly did what stocks do when someone threatens to cut off a major revenue stream: they fell.

Shares of CGI Inc., WSP Global, AtkinsRealis, Stantec, and Aecon Group all dropped more than 2% in early trading. Bombardier had it worse, sliding 7-8% to around C$293.49 after separate threats emerged about blocking its aircraft sales in the US market.

What Trump actually ordered

The directive specifically targets the removal of “Canadian-origin products” from the GSA’s procurement framework. Trump framed the move as a response to what he characterized as Canadian governments failing to provide reciprocal access to US firms in their own procurement processes.

The timing is deliberate. Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20B worth of US goods around September 8, one day before Trump’s announcement. The US is also preparing import bans on specific Canadian products, including alcohol and dairy, set to take effect on September 29.

Who gets hurt the most

Among the companies that took hits, CGI stands out as particularly exposed. Analyst Doug Taylor estimates that US government revenue accounts for 15-20% of CGI’s total revenue.

Bombardier’s situation is slightly different. The aerospace manufacturer’s decline was driven by the broader threat to block its jet sales in the US, not just the GSA directive. An 8% single-day drop for a company trading near C$300 per share reflects genuine investor anxiety about the possibility of losing access to the world’s largest market for business aviation.

The ambiguity problem

One of the more unsettling aspects of the directive is how loosely it defines “Canadian-origin products.” Analysts have flagged this ambiguity as a major source of uncertainty. Does a software platform developed in Montreal but hosted on US servers count? What about an engineering firm headquartered in Toronto but staffed with American engineers working out of a Virginia office?

The sectors most exposed appear to be IT services, engineering, and construction, all areas where Canadian firms have built substantial US federal businesses. The key variable to watch is whether the directive translates into actual procurement changes or remains a negotiating tool in a trade dispute that neither side seems interested in resolving quietly.

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