Cardano (ADA) Price: Technical Patterns Emerge as Network Fees Decline to $316k

TLDR

• Cardano is trading at $0.67, down about 50% from December highs
• Network fees dropped from $977k in December to $316k in March 2025
• App revenue crashed from $400k to just $26,000 in March
• Technical analysis shows a potential morning star pattern forming
• Price could test $0.73 resistance with some analysts predicting eventual rise to $2

Cardano’s price has been consolidating around $0.67, showing early signs of potential recovery despite significant ecosystem challenges. The cryptocurrency has formed what appears to be a morning star pattern on daily charts, suggesting the possibility of a bullish reversal after recent downward pressure.

The third-generation blockchain has experienced a steep decline from its December peak, falling nearly 50% as network activity slowed substantially. This price action comes amid a broader downturn in the platform’s on-chain metrics.

Recent data reveals a concerning trend in Cardano’s network fees, which dropped to $316,000 in March from $330,000 in February. This continues a downward trajectory that began after fees peaked at $977,000 in December 2024.

Cardano Price on CoinGecko

Ecosystem Under Pressure

Even more troubling for the Cardano ecosystem is the collapse in application revenue. DApps built on Cardano generated only $26,000 in March, compared to $400,000 in December—a 93% decrease in just three months.

This revenue decline coincides with substantial capital outflows from major Cardano applications. Minswap lost 20% of its assets, dropping to $81 million. Other protocols experienced even steeper losses, with Liqwid, Indigo, Splash Protocol, and Lenfi each seeing asset reductions exceeding 40%.

The performance gap between Cardano and competing networks has become increasingly apparent. Base, Coinbase’s layer-2 solution, generated over $20 million in fees during March. Even Sonic, a relatively new blockchain that rebranded from Fantom, produced more than $200,000 in the same period.

These metrics have fueled criticism from some quarters of the crypto industry, with detractors labeling Cardano a “ghost chain” due to its relatively underdeveloped application ecosystem compared to other major layer-1 networks like Solana and BNB Chain.

Technical Analysis Points to Potential Recovery

Despite these fundamental challenges, technical indicators suggest Cardano may be preparing for a bounce. The formation of a Doji candle followed by a bullish candle has created what analysts identify as a morning star pattern—a potential reversal signal.

This pattern emerged after ADA found support near the $0.60 level, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from recent highs. This technical support has so far prevented further declines despite broader market uncertainty.

Cardano now faces immediate resistance at approximately $0.73, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is also approaching this resistance, making it a key level for bulls to overcome.

If ADA can break through this resistance zone, the next target would be the 78.6% Fibonacci level around $0.92, representing a potential 37% gain from current prices.

Long-term Projections and Risk Factors

Some analysts remain optimistic about Cardano’s long-term prospects despite near-term challenges. Elliott Wave theorists suggest the current price action represents the second bearish phase of a larger pattern, which is typically followed by a third phase characterized by extended bullish momentum.

Under this scenario, Cardano could eventually reach $2, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from all-time highs. Such a move would represent nearly 200% appreciation from current levels.

However, traders should be aware of downside risks. A failure to hold support at $0.60 could trigger a drop to the next support zone around $0.53. More concerning is the potential “death crossover” between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which would signal additional bearish pressure if it occurs.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has warned that if Cardano cannot reclaim the critical $0.70-$0.80 range, it could face a deeper correction toward the $0.31-$0.24 range—a decline of more than 50% from current levels.

The coming days will be crucial for determining Cardano’s direction. A sustained break above $0.73 would confirm the reversal pattern and potentially trigger the anticipated rally, while failing to hold current support levels could extend the months-long downtrend.

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