Ceasefire odds drop to 2% as US-Iran tensions escalate

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

The U.S. strike on an Iranian bridge and Iran’s threat against major tech companies have slashed the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 to 2% YES, down from 8% a day ago.

The April 7 ceasefire market now shows only 2% confidence in a resolution within five days. The April 15 market is at 8% YES, down from 18% yesterday. The April 30 market has dropped to 24% YES from 40%. Traders are clearly skeptical about short-term diplomatic solutions.

With a daily trading volume at $536,585 in USDC, the market is active. Changing the price by 5 percentage points would require $25,788 for the April 7 market, showing stability despite the situation. The largest single move was a 1-point drop at 1:12 AM, indicating a steady decline in confidence.

Traders are betting on a prolonged conflict without immediate diplomatic breakthroughs. A YES share for an April 7 ceasefire trades at just 2¢, offering a 50x return if resolved in five days. A major diplomatic shift would need to happen quickly, which seems unlikely.

Watch for CENTCOM announcements and actions by intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Any change in rhetoric from the U.S. or Iran, especially involving leaders like Trump or Khamenei, could still impact odds.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.8% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 23.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 45.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 57.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES

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