3 hours ago
13
Admiral Brad Cooper of CENTCOM called Israel a key ally in the US-Iran conflict. The market for Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by April 21 is at 9% YES, down from 33% a week ago.
Cooper’s praise points to continued military coordination with Israel, which makes an imminent announcement ending operations unlikely. The April 21 market sits at 9% YES with 5 days until resolution. Traders are not pricing in a diplomatic breakthrough.
The U.S. invasion of Iran market is drawing more interest as escalation risk grows. Cooper’s comments about military objectives could signal readiness for further action. Volume in that market is low, but statements from military leadership can shift trader sentiment.
Actual USDC traded in the Iran operations market is $4,255 per day, with $2,091 needed to move prices 5 percentage points — a moderately liquid market where a few large trades can shift odds. The largest single move was a 1-point drop at 6:21 PM, from 12% to 10%, showing sensitivity to news.
At 9¢, a YES share for the April 21 market pays $1 if operations end by then, a 11.1x return. That bet requires believing in a rapid diplomatic resolution within 5 days, while CENTCOM leadership is publicly talking up military coordination with Israel.
Watch for CENTCOM announcements and statements from Israeli leadership. A shift in tone from military officials or new diplomatic engagements could move these markets.
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