Central banks buy 23 tonnes of gold in July, led by China

Central banks around the world acquired more than 23 tonnes of gold in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of purchases. The People’s Bank of China led the demand with a purchase of 20 tonnes, increasing its total acquisitions for the year to 60 tonnes. Poland followed with an addition of 8 tonnes, raising its total purchases for 2026 to 90 tonnes. This trend of accumulation has resulted in a year-to-date total of 130 tonnes acquired by central banks, slightly below the 160 tonnes purchased in the same period last year.

The steady accumulation of gold by central banks suggests a sustained confidence in the commodity, potentially influencing market perception and pricing. Current market data on Polymarket indicates a relatively low probability of gold reaching $15,000 by the end of December 2026, with YES priced at just 1.5%. However, the ongoing purchases may provide supportive indications for higher gold prices.

Analysts are closely watching geopolitical developments and economic indicators that could affect gold’s trajectory. Factors such as potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation levels in the U.S. could also play a critical role in shaping the market’s outlook on gold prices.

Key Takeaways

• The consistent purchase of gold by central banks, particularly led by China, suggests sustained demand for the precious metal.
• Current market pricing indicates a low probability for gold to reach $15,000 by December 2026, despite recent central bank actions.
• Market participants appear to consider ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic indicators as potential influencers on gold’s price trajectory.

What to Watch

The actions of global central banks, especially in relation to their gold acquisition strategies, will be crucial to monitor. Any significant increase in purchasing activity could further influence market sentiment. Additionally, decisions by the Federal Reserve concerning interest rates and inflation data releases in the coming months could provide key indicators of potential movements in gold prices. Observers should also keep an eye on geopolitical developments, particularly in regions like Russia-Ukraine and Taiwan, as these could impact gold’s safe-haven appeal.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.