China Hits $1 Trillion Trade Milestone While US Shipments Plunge 29%

TLDR

• China’s 2025 trade surplus crossed $1 trillion for the first time, with November exports jumping 5.9% to $330.3 billion
• Chinese shipments to the US fell 29% in November, continuing eight months of steep declines in bilateral trade
• The Supreme Court will rule soon on whether Trump can legally impose tariffs using emergency economic powers
• Trump is weighing an exit from the USMCA trade deal with Mexico and Canada next year
• US companies like Costco filed lawsuits for tariff refunds, betting the courts will overturn Trump’s tariff policies

China’s trade surplus reached a historic milestone in 2025, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. The customs data released Monday shows Chinese exports climbed 5.9% in November to $330.3 billion while imports rose only 1.9% to $218.6 billion.

The nearly $1.08 trillion surplus for the first eleven months exceeds China’s full-year 2024 total of $992 billion. The growing gap between exports and imports demonstrates China’s continued dominance in global manufacturing.

The Supreme Court is expected to rule in coming weeks on President Trump’s authority to impose tariffs. Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to levy blanket tariffs on imported goods from multiple countries.

The legal challenge questions whether the president can impose taxes without congressional approval. The Constitution grants Congress oversight of taxation and spending, not the executive branch.

US-China Trade Relations Deteriorate Despite Recent Truce

Shipments from China to the United States dropped 29% year-over-year in November. This marks the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines in US-China trade flows.

China is shifting its export strategy toward new markets. Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe are receiving increased shipments as US trade weakens.

A trade truce between the US and China was struck in late October. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in South Korea to negotiate the agreement.

Under the deal, the US lowered some tariffs on Chinese goods. China agreed to stop export controls on rare earth materials in exchange.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Wednesday that China is honoring the agreement. He told a New York Times summit that China is keeping “every part of the deal.”

Morgan Stanley predicts China’s share of global exports will reach 16.5% by 2030. The projection factors in China’s advantages in electric vehicles, robotics, batteries and advanced manufacturing.

Trump Considers Major Trade Policy Changes

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Politico that Trump is considering withdrawing from the USMCA. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement currently allows Canada and Mexico to export products with minimal tariffs if they meet origin requirements.

An exit from USMCA would reshape North American trade relationships. The agreement replaced NAFTA during Trump’s first term in office.

Trump has also ordered federal agencies to investigate food supply chain price fixing. The Department of Justice and Federal Commission will examine whether foreign companies are artificially inflating meat prices.

Several American companies filed legal claims seeking tariff refunds. Costco is among the businesses challenging Trump’s tariff authority in court.

If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, the federal government may need to repay billions in collected tariff revenue. The New York Times reported this potential financial exposure based on pending litigation.

Trump praised Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on Wednesday for understanding chip export restrictions to China. “He knows,” Trump said about the limits on technology transfers.

Chinese factory activity contracted for the eighth straight month in November according to official surveys. Economists say China will likely still meet its 5% annual growth target for 2025 due to strong export performance.

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