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- Citigroup lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 and cut its Ethereum forecast from $3,175 to $2,240.
- The bank cited persistent ETF outflows, weak investor demand, and slow progress on U.S. crypto legislation.
- Citi also warned that its bearish scenario could see Bitcoin fall to $53,000 and Ethereum to $1,094 if macro conditions worsen.
Citigroup has significantly reduced its 12-month price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, becoming the latest Wall Street firm to adopt a more cautious outlook on the cryptocurrency market.
The investment bank lowered its Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 while cutting its Ethereum forecast to $2,240 from $3,175. The revisions reflect weakening institutional demand, continued ETF outflows, and growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. regulatory landscape.
ETF Outflows Continue to Pressure Crypto
Citigroup said one of the biggest reasons behind its revised outlook is the sharp slowdown in spot crypto ETF demand.
The bank now expects net Bitcoin ETF inflows to total zero over the next 12 months, a dramatic reduction from its previous forecast of $10 billion in new inflows.
According to Citi, ETF flows have become one of the primary drivers of cryptocurrency prices. With Bitcoin ETFs already recording roughly $3.3 billion in net outflows this year, institutional demand has weakened considerably, removing one of the strongest catalysts that fueled previous rallies.
Until ETF flows stabilize or reverse, Citi believes broader investor participation is likely to remain subdued.
Crypto Faces Multiple Headwinds
Beyond ETF activity, the bank pointed to several additional factors weighing on digital assets.
Progress on U.S. cryptocurrency legislation has slowed, reducing hopes for near-term regulatory clarity. At the same time, investors remain concerned about potential Bitcoin sales from corporate treasury companies that accumulated large holdings during previous market cycles.
Citigroup also noted that capital has increasingly rotated toward artificial intelligence-related investments, drawing funds away from cryptocurrencies and other higher-risk assets.
The combination of these factors has contributed to one of the weakest periods for digital assets since last year’s bull market peaked.
Bear Case Points to More Downside
While Citi’s new base-case targets still imply meaningful upside from current prices over the next year, the bank also outlined a much more pessimistic scenario.
If recessionary economic conditions develop and ETF outflows continue, Citigroup estimates Bitcoin could decline to approximately $53,000 over the next 12 months. Under the same scenario, Ethereum could fall to around $1,094.
The bank believes macroeconomic conditions will remain the dominant factor influencing crypto performance throughout the coming year.
Investors Await the Next Catalyst
Bitcoin recently slipped below the $60,000 level, trading around $58,800, while Ethereum fell toward $1,585 as both assets continued struggling to regain momentum.
Citigroup believes the market now needs a new catalyst before institutional demand can recover. Possible drivers could include improving ETF flows, meaningful regulatory progress in the United States, easing monetary policy, or renewed adoption from institutional investors.
Until then, the bank expects cryptocurrencies to remain under pressure as investors continue favoring sectors viewed as offering stronger near-term growth opportunities.
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