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A new CoinGecko study spanning seven years of on-chain data reveals that altcoin traders consistently posted median profits several times larger than those who stuck to major tokens. The catch: that amplification cuts both ways, and the broader picture for retail DEX trading looks genuinely grim.
The report, titled “Trading Majors vs. Altcoins: Ethereum DEX Trader Profitability, 2020-2026,” analyzed approximately 200 Ethereum-tradeable tokens derived from the top 500 by 2026 market cap, excluding stablecoins. It split wallets into two camps: “Majors-Only” traders who stuck to the top 10 tokens by market cap, and “Altcoins” traders who ventured into tokens ranked 11 through 200.
The amplification effect
Across six of the seven years studied, altcoin traders posted median profit-and-loss outcomes between 3 and 6.6 times those of their majors-only counterparts.
In 2021, the best year for both groups, majors traders recorded a median PnL of $339.21 while altcoin traders hit $2,016.02, roughly six times larger. In 2022, majors traders posted a median loss of $222.18. Altcoin traders lost $733.03, about 3.3 times worse.
Perhaps the most striking statistical finding was the 0.975 correlation in PnL outcomes between the two groups across each year. At 0.975, these two cohorts are essentially riding the same macro waves. Altcoin traders just experience those waves at a much higher amplitude.
Win rates tell a darker story
The overall median win rate for all active Ethereum DEX traders dropped to a record low of 26.29% in the twelve months ending August 2026. That means roughly three out of four traders are losing money on their trades.
Win rates did not consistently favor one group over the other. Being an altcoin trader didn’t mean you won more often. It meant that when you won, you won bigger, and when you lost, you lost harder.
The total realized PnL across both trader cohorts had turned negative to the tune of $3.30 billion by August 2026.
A shrinking altcoin trading population
By 2024, altcoin traders made up just 7.22% of the total Ethereum DEX trading population. The figure recovered modestly to 10.82% by 2026.
What this means for traders
The 0.975 correlation finding suggests that altcoin trading on Ethereum DEXs is not a diversification play. Moving into smaller tokens does not hedge against macro movements — it leverages up on the same macro movements.
The record-low win rate of 26.29% and $3.30 billion in aggregate realized losses across years of trading activity indicate that small, repeated losses compound into significant capital destruction over time.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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