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The Congressional Budget Office put a price tag on Operation Epic Fury this week, and it’s not small. The US military campaign in Iran has cost approximately $38 billion from its launch on February 28 through August 1, according to a CBO report dated September 15.
That works out to roughly $7.6 billion per month over the first five months of operations. The CBO projects ongoing costs of $2B to $3B monthly, depending on how intense things stay on the ground and in the air.
Where the money is going
The biggest line item is munitions replacement, clocking in at $21.7B. Flying hours come next at $10.4B, reflecting the relentless pace of air operations over Iranian territory. Elevated fuel expenses have added another $2.7B, equipment losses account for $1.9B, and increased operational tempo across bases and support infrastructure has cost $1.5B. Pentagon estimates from earlier this summer aligned closely with the CBO’s figures, pegging total costs at roughly $37.5B as of mid-2026.
The munitions problem nobody wants to talk about
Beyond the headline dollar figure, the CBO report surfaces a more uncomfortable reality about America’s weapons stockpile. The US has likely burned through 50% to 67% of its critical missile-defense interceptors since June 2025. Rebuilding that inventory isn’t a matter of placing a rush order. The CBO estimates a replenishment timeline of roughly five years.
The administration has reportedly begun preparing emergency funding requests that could reach as high as $70B to cover both ongoing operational costs and the long process of restocking depleted arsenals.
Inflation is the second front
The CBO projects that the conflict will raise first-quarter 2027 Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation by 0.5 percentage points compared to February baselines. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to climb by 0.3 points.
The inflationary pressure stems primarily from energy supply disruptions. Military operations near the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes on any given day, and ongoing instability in the Red Sea shipping corridor have tightened global energy markets.
The $70B emergency funding request, if it materializes at that scale, would also have fiscal implications. Additional deficit spending of that magnitude feeds back into inflation dynamics, potentially compounding the very price pressures the CBO is already forecasting.
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