CryptoRank data reveals 71% of prediction market users lose money

Prediction markets were supposed to be the great equalizer, a place where crowd wisdom could outperform pundits and pollsters alike. Turns out, the crowd is mostly funding a very small group of winners.

CryptoRank published an analysis showing that approximately 71% of Polymarket users recorded net losses between 2022 and 2025. Only about 28% managed to turn a profit.

The house always wins, and so does the top 0.1%

The top 1% of traders captured roughly 95% of total profits during the three-year period CryptoRank examined. The top 0.1% accounted for 74% of all profits on its own.

Multiple studies covering over $67B in trade volume across prediction platforms found that roughly 69-70% of accounts were unprofitable, with top traders capturing between 76.5% and 84% of gains depending on the methodology.

Bloomberg’s own analysis found that retail users collectively lost around $131 million in the Polymarket ecosystem.

Bots, market makers, and the retail disadvantage

CryptoRank’s findings point to sophisticated market makers and automated trading bots as the primary beneficiaries. These participants aren’t necessarily better at predicting election outcomes or geopolitical events. They’re better at exploiting the mechanics of how prediction markets work.

Market makers profit by providing liquidity, essentially sitting on both sides of a bet and collecting the spread. Automated bots can identify and exploit retail mispricings in milliseconds. Early entry matters too, as traders who position themselves before a market gains mainstream attention can buy shares at more favorable prices.

What this means for prediction market participants

The 71% loss rate is actually comparable to statistics from contract-for-difference (CFD) brokers in traditional finance, where regulators in Europe require platforms to disclose that typically 70-80% of retail accounts lose money.

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have positioned themselves as revolutionary tools for information discovery. That narrative holds up when you look at market accuracy. It falls apart when you examine who’s actually making money, with the top 0.1% of traders capturing 74% of total profits while 71% of users end up with net losses.

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