Did Bitcoin Bottom? This is How to Know

Analysts at market intelligence platform CryptoQuant have outlined on-chain metrics that could signal that the bitcoin (BTC) price has bottomed and cryptocurrencies are beginning to rally again.

The latest weekly CryptoQuant report mentioned signals like higher bullish momentum, rising BTC demand, and faster stablecoin liquidity growth as the metrics to watch.

Higher Bullish Momentum

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator currently signals that the crypto market has been in its least bullish state since March 2023, when the United States banking crisis occurred.

With BTC hovering around $61,000 at the time of writing and having fallen to a one-month low of $58,500 earlier this week, the market needs bullish momentum for prices to recover. This means CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator needs to rise above its 30-day simple moving average.

Also, Bitcoin demand growth has to accelerate to levels seen in the first quarter of the year for prices to recover. Although the demand growth recovered a little after May, it is still significantly slow compared to the rate seen at the start of the year when the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were launched.

Increased buying from permanent Bitcoin holders can signal that the price of the leading digital asset has bottomed. Currently, this cohort of investors is purchasing BTC at a monthly pace of 72,000 BTC, a far cry from the Q1 monthly pace of 160,000 BTC. While the pace has recovered slightly from the May rate of 68,000 BTC, much higher purchases are needed for prices to regain upward momentum.

A Potential Major Correction

Bitcoin’s ultimate price support level is $56,000, based on Metcalfe price valuation bands, which marked resistance and top levels in the previous cycle. Any decline below this support level could trigger a major correction that would wipe out even more value from the market. Hence, this level could determine whether Bitcoin has bottomed or not.

In addition, traders’ on-chain unrealized profit margins becoming positive could signal incoming rallies. An increase in Bitcoin flow from other exchanges to Coinbase signals an uptick in U.S. investor Bitcoin demand, which is often correlated with higher prices.

Finally, an acceleration in stablecoin liquidity, often seen in the 60-day growth of Tether’s (USDT) market cap, indicates an inflow of capital into the market – a crucial metric needed for prices to move northward.

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