Dogecoin’s 4-Year Cycle Hints at a $10 Surge—Will History Repeat?

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March 17, 2025 by Kashif Saleem

Dogecoin follows a four-year cycle, with past rallies in 2017 and 2021 leading to surges.
Crypto expert DogeCapital predicts DOGE could hit $10 if historical patterns repeat.
DOGE must gain 5,647.13% from $0.17403 to hit the $10 target.

Dogecoin (DOGE) appears to be mirroring its past price movements, with some analysts predicting a parabolic rise beyond $10. Crypto expert, DogeCapital, has pointed out that Dogecoin follows a four-year cycle where it forms a rounded bottom before experiencing a steep breakout. The current price structure closely resembles the past patterns observed in 2017 and 2021, both of which led to significant rallies.

Currently, DOGE is nearing a critical support level along the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel. Historically, every time Dogecoin has touched this trendline, it has ignited a massive price surge. If history repeats itself, the popular meme coin could be gearing up for another explosive move, potentially reaching new all-time highs.

The last major rally occurred in 2021 when Dogecoin rebounded from this same trendline, resulting in a historic bull run. If this pattern holds, the upcoming price action could see Dogecoin surging toward the highly anticipated $10 mark. However, to reach this level from its current price, DOGE would need a staggering 5,647.13% increase.

Analysts Eye Even Higher Targets

DogeCapital is not alone in its bullish outlook. Popular trader Javon Marks and well-respected analyst Ali Martinez have even suggested that DOGE could surpass $20 in this cycle. On February 6, Marks reiterated his stance, saying various market catalysts could push Dogecoin beyond expectations. Marks has held onto this ambitious target since December 28, 2024.

Adding to this, speculation is building around a potential spot Dogecoin ETF. Major investment firms like Grayscale and Bitwise have already filed applications, and industry experts see a strong chance of approval. Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate the odds of an SEC green light at about 75%.

An ETF approval would simplify institutional access to Dogecoin, increasing demand and potentially driving up prices. If approved, it could serve as a massive catalyst, similar to how Bitcoin ETFs fueled a fresh rally in early 2024.

Dogecoin Current Price Struggles: A Sign of Caution?

As of now, Dogecoin is trading at $0.17403, reflecting a 3.48% intraday gain. However, the overall trend remains bearish. The price is currently struggling to stay above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $0.18834, while the lower Bollinger Band at $0.14722 acts as a strong support zone.

DOGE has faced resistance near $0.22945, failing to break higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 39.01, suggesting weak momentum but not yet oversold conditions. A recovery above the 50 RSI mark would be necessary to confirm a shift in trend. If DOGE dips below an RSI of 34.73, a decline toward the $0.14 region could follow.

The MACD presents a weak bullish crossover, with the MACD line at -0.02062 and the signal line at -0.02242. The histogram has turned slightly positive at 0.00180, hinting at a potential shift in momentum. However, for any significant bullish move to be confirmed, Dogecoin needs a breakout above the $0.19–$0.20 range. If resistance holds, DOGE may continue consolidating or retest lower levels before determining its next major trend.

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