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Americans are spending roughly $40 billion more on fuel thanks to the military conflict with Iran, a cost that lands squarely on household budgets already squeezed by years of inflation. The price spike traces directly to Operation Epic Fury, the US military campaign that has disrupted global oil markets and sent crude prices on a trajectory not seen since the worst days of 2022.
Brent crude surged from $72 to as high as $128 per barrel during the conflict.
The numbers behind the pain
Average US gasoline prices exceeded $4.18 per gallon for approximately 63 days during the conflict period. That sustained elevation in pump prices is what produced the estimated $40 billion in additional fuel spending by American consumers.
The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) estimates that direct federal costs for Operation Epic Fury sit at roughly $42.5 billion, assuming fighting continues through April 2026. On top of that, indirect federal costs related to the operation are estimated at around $5 billion, and that figure excludes higher interest costs if the spending is financed through deficit borrowing.
The gas tax question
One policy response floated in Washington involves suspending the federal gas tax to provide relief at the pump. A four-month suspension of the federal gas tax could result in an $11.5 billion loss of revenue for the Highway Trust Fund.
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