5 hours ago
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It is official: Donald Trump wins the USA presidential elections of 2024! Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 8% in the last 24 hours, reaching new all-time highs, despite the dollar also strengthening.
Donald Trump wins the USA elections and Bitcoin skyrockets, dollar remains strong
Yesterday, before the polling stations opened, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) was around $68,000, while a week ago it had risen to $72,000.
The point is that at the end of last week, hypotheses began to circulate, which later proved to be correct, regarding a possible strong recovery in support for Kamala Harris.
For weeks it was believed that Trump’s victory was decidedly likely, so much so that from the beginning of September to mid-October the price of Bitcoin had risen from $54,000 to $68,000.
These probabilities seemed to have increased even in the second half of October, so much so that Bitcoin, in fact, had risen up to $72,000.
At that point, however, a bit of uncertainty set in. The reason was due to the spread of some forecasts about the hypothetical victory of Harris in some states considered to be in bull.
Such predictions last night turned out to be incorrect, but last weekend they were able to bring the price of Bitcoin back to $68,000 in mid-October.
In light of what emerged last night from the vote count, Trump instead received more votes than Harris in practically all the swing states, and so Bitcoin first returned to $72,000, and then continued its run.
The connection between Trump and Bitcoin
The fact is that Donald Trump is the most crypto president the USA has ever had.
On the contrary, the current Biden administration, which will remain in office until early January, has in fact favored the fight against cryptocurrencies, especially through the SEC of Gary Gensler.
Now Gensler at the beginning of 2025 will be fired, and in his place, presumably, a new head of the SEC much more crypto-friendly will be appointed by the new president.
All this is enough to turbocharge the crypto markets, also because history teaches us that after the US elections, a great crypto bull run generally begins.
Trump himself owns both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and he has even stated that he wants to make the USA the world capital of cryptocurrencies.
The record of Bitcoin (BTC) price after Trump’s victory: new ATH
The previous all-time high of the Bitcoin price was reached in March of this year, at around $73,800.
Last night not only did Bitcoin climb back above $72,000, but in the momentum of the rise, it also broke the previous record, surpassing both $74,000 and $75,000.
The day is not over yet, and although it has now returned close to $74,000, in theory there is still time to beat the current record of $75,300.
It should be remembered that the previous all-time high was in November 2021, that is, twelve months after the previous USA presidential elections, when it exceeded $69,000.
In the past, it had never happened that a record set in the year following the US elections was surpassed before the subsequent elections, but this could also be due to the fact that the 2021 record was enormously limited by the absence of Chinese capital, which had disappeared after China’s crypto ban.
Without that ban, perhaps the 2021 record would have been closer to $100,000 rather than $70,000, so in reality, this year’s anomaly would seem much less anomalous than it might appear at a superficial analysis.
This in theory also suggests that by the end of 2024 the price of BTC could also approach $100,000, although the Chinese ban is still formally in place. However, it should be noted that many Chinese are still investing in the crypto market, secretly using foreign exchanges, and that in Hong Kong the ban has in fact been withdrawn.
The rise of the dollar
There is, however, an anomaly.
The price of Bitcoin tends to be inversely correlated to the Dollar Index (DXY), especially in the medium/long term.
Last night the Dollar Index rose to over 105 points, reaching the highs of the last few months.
It was believed that the peak of the last few months had been reached last week, at 104.5 points, also because generally after the US presidential elections the dollar weakens.
Instead last night, probably still due to Trump’s clear victory, it suddenly rose again, after it had dropped even below 103.4 points yesterday.
However, it seems unlikely that it can remain at such high levels for long, and if it were to start a long descent, with a target probably set at around 90 points, this could facilitate a further rise in the price of Bitcoin.
Therefore, despite the anomaly of this night, there seem to be the conditions for the trigger of a bullrun crypto, precisely because it seems possible a long descent of the dollar in the next 12 months.
One must not forget that in the short term, it often happens that Bitcoin does not follow the opposite trend of the dollar, but in the medium/long term, it has always been the case so far.
In both cases of the two previous US presidential elections, the Dollar Index fell to around 90 points in the following year or the two subsequent years, so it is definitely likely that this will happen again.
English (US) ·