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In a surprising development in Israeli politics, the Yashar Party led by Gadi Eisenkot has surpassed Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party in a Channel 13 poll for the first time. This marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the upcoming 2026 legislative elections. Eisenkot, a former IDF Chief of Staff, is emerging as a formidable challenger to Netanyahu. The poll results come amid growing dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s handling of the Lebanon conflict and a decrease in Likud’s support, particularly in northern Israel. This development has also impacted prediction markets, where Eisenkot’s chances of becoming the next Prime Minister are now priced at 40%.
Key Takeaways
- The new poll suggests that Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party has gained a lead over Netanyahu’s Likud for the first time.
- Market pricing indicates a shift in sentiment against Netanyahu’s likelihood of remaining Prime Minister, consistent with reduced support for Likud.
- Eisenkot’s chances of becoming the next Prime Minister are reflected in prediction markets, with a 40% probability.
What to Watch
Observers should monitor further polling developments and any potential shifts within the Knesset that could lead to a snap election before the scheduled October 27, 2026, date. The handling of the military draft bill and the ongoing situation with Lebanon may also influence voter sentiment and market pricing. Any further decline in Likud’s support could significantly affect Netanyahu’s prospects in the upcoming elections.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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