Empire State factory index surges to 20.6 in August, crushing estimates by nearly double

New York State’s manufacturing sector just posted its best monthly reading in years, and the number was not subtle about it. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August came in at 20.6 on its headline general business conditions index, nearly doubling the median economist forecast of 11.0.

That is a beat of roughly 9 to 10 points depending on which poll you look at.

What the numbers actually say

The August reading of 20.6 marks a 5-point jump from July’s 15.6, and represents the highest level for the index since at least early 2022.

The survey’s component breakdown tells a story of broad improvement. New orders climbed to 17.3 and shipments rose to 11.7, both comfortably in positive territory. In manufacturing surveys like this one, any reading above zero signals expansion, so both of those figures indicate actual growth rather than just a slowdown in contraction.

Unfilled orders registered at 15.5, and delivery times extended to 20.6.

On the labor side, the number of employees index came in at 9.3, with the average workweek index at 6.9.

The supply availability index landed at -13.4, meaning firms are still finding it harder to source materials than they would like.

The future business conditions index rose to 32.1.

The price picture is more complicated

The prices paid index came in at 58.6. Selling prices registered at 22.7, meaning firms are passing some costs along, but the gap between what they are paying and what they are charging suggests margin compression is a real concern.

Why this matters beyond New York

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey covers New York State, which includes the city, its suburbs, and upstate industrial centers. It is one of the earliest regional manufacturing reports released each month, which gives it an outsized role as a bellwether for the broader industrial data that follows.

The August survey collected responses from August 3 through 10, with the official release on August 17, 2026.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.