Ethereum Price Analysis: What Does $540M Staking Outflows Mean for ETH Price?

Ethereum (ETH) price rose 4% in the last 3 days to hit the $2,720 mark on Feb 11, as the global altcoin market received major capital inflows, however on-chain staking outflows suggest the ETH resurgence could fade out early.

Ethereum Price Reclaims $2,700 Resistance after Weekend Consolidation

Ethereum (ETH) has recorded a strong rebound, climbing 4% over the last three days to breach the $2,720 resistance level on February 11. The recent surge comes amid broader capital inflows into the altcoin market, even as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum remained relatively flat over the weekend.

Notably, other major altcoins such as Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and Ripple (XRP) experienced significant gains, shifting investor sentiment and paving the way for Ethereum’s bullish momentum. The TradingView chart below  shows that ETH price surged from $2,560 on Monday to a local high of $2,725, marking a 3.7% increase over 48 hours.

Ethereum Price Action, Feb 11, 2025

This uptrend also signals the fourth consecutive day without losses for Ethereum, an important psychological milestone for market participants.

However, while ETH price action appears bullish, declining trading volume suggests that the rally may be losing steam. Without substantial demand and follow-through buying pressure, ETH could struggle to advance past the next resistance zone, potentially leading to a reversal or period of consolidation.

Fake-Out Signals Emerge as Investors Withdraw 200,000 ETH from Ethereum 2.0 Staking Contracts

Despite Ethereum’s resilience over the past four days, on-chain staking data raises concerns that the ongoing rally may be unsustainable. The chart below tracks daily changes in the total balance of ETH deposited into Ethereum 2.0’s Beacon Chain staking and network validation contracts.

As of February 4, Ethereum staking deposits stood at 33.7 million ETH. However, within the last seven days, investors have withdrawn over 200,000 ETH, bringing the total staked balance down to 33.5 million as of February 11. These outflows, valued at approximately $540 million at current prices, introduce potential bearish implications for ETH’s price trajectory.

Ethereum ETH 2.0 Staking Deposits as of Feb 11, 2025 | Source: Beaconcha.in

First, an influx of unstaked ETH increases the available market supply, which could dilute bullish momentum and make it difficult for ETH to sustain price gains. Large sell-offs from recently withdrawn funds may put downward pressure on ETH’s price, limiting its ability to surpass key resistance levels.

Moreover, staking withdrawals can be interpreted as a signal of diminishing confidence among major stakeholders and network validators. For Proof-of-Stake (PoS) networks like Ethereum, a decline in staking participation could negatively impact network security and efficiency, further reinforcing a cautious market outlook.

Given these bearish signals, Ethereum’s 3.7% rally may turn out to be a fake-out rather than the start of a sustained bullish trend. If ETH fails to maintain support above $2,700 and trading volume remains subdued, a retracement toward lower support levels, such as $2,560 or even $2,500, could be imminent. Conversely, a decisive breakout above $2,750, backed by strong trading volume, could invalidate the bearish outlook and pave the way for further gains.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Could Tumble to $2,400 if this key support level caves

Ethereum price prediction charts suggests a precarious balance between bullish recovery and bearish continuation. Currently trading at $2,703, ETH has reclaimed the $2,700 psychological level after a modest 3.7% rebound.

However, the declining trading volume and persistent bearish market structure hint at potential downside risks. The volume delta indicator reflects a weakening buying momentum, with recent green volume bars failing to match the intensity of previous selling pressure. This suggests that the current relief rally lacks the conviction needed to break higher resistance levels.

Ethereum Price Forecast (ETHUSD)

The Bollinger Bands show that ETH remains near the lower boundary at $2,436, reinforcing the idea that price action is still weak despite the recent bounce. While the VWAP at $2,696 aligns closely with the current price, indicating temporary stabilization, it remains below the midline of the Bollinger Band, implying that ETH has yet to reclaim its bullish posture. If bears regain control, a breakdown below $2,660 could trigger a selloff toward $2,400, where the lower Bollinger Band awaits. Conversely, a breakout above $2,725 could pave the way toward the $2,972 resistance.

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