Fed not cutting rates 'at all' in 2025 may trigger a bear market — Analyst

Network economist Timothy Peterson warns that if the US Federal Reserve holds disconnected connected complaint cuts successful 2025, it whitethorn origin a broader marketplace downturn, perchance dragging Bitcoin backmost toward $70,000.

“What it needs is simply a trigger. I deliberation that trigger whitethorn beryllium arsenic elemental arsenic the Fed not cutting rates astatine each this year,” Peterson said successful a March 8 X post. Peterson’s remark comes conscionable a time aft Federal Reserve seat Jerome Powell reiterated that he's successful nary hurry to set involvement rates.

Fed complaint chopped hold whitethorn spark carnivore market

"We bash not request to beryllium successful a hurry and are well-positioned to hold for greater clarity,” Powell said successful a code successful New York connected March 7.

Source: Timothy Peterson

Peterson, who is the writer of the insubstantial “Metcalfe’s Law arsenic a Model for Bitcoin’s Value,” estimated however debased the Nasdaq could autumn to foretell Bitcoin’s (BTC) imaginable bottommost successful “the adjacent carnivore market.”

Using Peterson’s Nasdaq lowest terms guardant model, Peterson estimated that the bottommost would instrumentality astir 7 months to form, with the Nasdaq dropping 17% implicit the period.

Applying a “1.9” times multiplier to that magnitude for Bitcoin’s decline, helium estimated a 33% diminution successful Bitcoin, bringing it down to $57,000 from its existent terms astatine publication, $86,199, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Source: Timothy Peterson

However, helium said Bitcoin apt won’t driblet that far, expecting a bottommost person to the debased $70,000 scope based connected humanities trends from 2022.

“Traders and opportunists hover implicit Bitcoin similar vultures,” helium said, explaining that erstwhile the marketplace expects Bitcoin to deed $57,000, “it won’t get determination due to the fact that determination are ever immoderate investors who measurement successful due to the fact that the terms is ‘low enough.”

Bitcoin's 2022 debased didn’t driblet arsenic expected

“I retrieve successful 2022 erstwhile everyone said the bottommost would beryllium $12k.  It lone went to $16k, 25% higher than expected,” helium said earlier pointing retired that the 25% summation from $57,000 is $71,000. 

The past clip Bitcoin traded astatine the $71,000 terms level was connected Nov. 6, after Donald Trump won the US election, earlier rallying for a period and reaching $100,000 by Dec. 5.

Related: Bitcoin investors stock mixed reactions to White House Crypto Summit

In January 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes echoed a akin terms prediction.

“I americium calling for a $70k to $75k correction successful BTC a mini fiscal crisis, and a resumption of wealth printing that volition nonstop america to $250k by the extremity of the year,” Hayes said successful a Jan. 27 X post.

In December 2024, crypto mining steadfast Blockware Solutions said Bitcoin’s “bear case” for 2025 would beryllium $150,000, assuming the Federal Reserve reverses people connected involvement complaint cuts.

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