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FIFA’s biggest World Cup ever is also its most controversial. The 2026 tournament, expanded from 32 to 48 teams, was designed to be more inclusive and more competitive. Instead, it’s drawing fire from fans, analysts, and academics who worry the format still carries the very risks it was built to eliminate.
The core concern: the final round of group-stage matches could incentivize teams to collude. It’s a problem as old as international soccer itself, and one that FIFA’s format gymnastics have not fully solved.
The format, explained
Here’s how the 2026 World Cup is structured. Forty-eight teams are divided into 12 groups of four, producing 72 group-stage matches. The top two teams from each group advance, along with the eight best third-placed finishers, creating a 32-team knockout bracket.
This wasn’t the original plan. FIFA initially proposed 16 groups of three teams each. In English: fewer games per group, faster resolution, but a massive structural flaw.
In a group of three, the final match is always between two teams who already know exactly what result they need. That’s not a recipe for fair competition. It’s a recipe for the “Disgrace of Gijón.”
That 1982 World Cup match between West Germany and Austria remains one of soccer’s most infamous moments. Both teams knew a 1-0 German win would send them both through. So that’s exactly what happened. West Germany scored early, and the two sides spent the remaining 80 minutes passing the ball around midfield like they were killing time at a Sunday league warmup. Algerian fans, whose team was eliminated as a result, waved banknotes at the players in disgust.
Academics, including mathematician Julien Guyon, studied the three-team group proposal and found a high probability of similar collusion scenarios emerging, even with competitive balance across the groups. FIFA scrapped the idea in March 2023, settling on the current 12-groups-of-four structure instead.
New format, old problems
The four-team group format is the same one the World Cup has used since 1998. It’s familiar. It’s tested. But scaling it up to 48 teams introduces complications that didn’t exist at 32.
The most obvious issue is the third-place qualification pathway. Eight of the twelve third-place teams advance. That means finishing third in your group is, more often than not, good enough. When losing doesn’t necessarily mean going home, the stakes in the final group match drop considerably.
FIFA has tried to address some of these concerns through rule changes. Tiebreaker rules were updated to prioritize head-to-head results over goal difference. The logic is straightforward: if two teams are level on points, the result of their direct matchup determines who advances. This theoretically discourages teams from gaming goal difference through lopsided wins against weaker opponents.
How FIFA got here
The decision to expand the World Cup to 48 teams was made in January 2017, under FIFA president Gianni Infantino. The expansion was always going to require a format overhaul. Fitting 48 teams into a coherent tournament structure is a logistical puzzle with no perfect solution. Every configuration involves tradeoffs between competitive integrity, scheduling feasibility, and commercial viability.
FIFA spent years deliberating before confirming the final format in March 2023. The three-team group proposal was the frontrunner for a while, backed by those who wanted to minimize the total number of matches. But the collusion research effectively killed it. The organization pivoted to the four-team model, accepting a larger match count in exchange for what it considered a fairer competitive structure.
The total of 72 group-stage matches represents a significant increase from the 48 group-stage games in the traditional 32-team format. That’s 50% more matches before the knockout rounds even begin.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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