Fitch forecasts Brent crude at $70 per barrel by Q4 2026 as oversupply looms

Fitch Ratings just drew a very specific roadmap for oil prices through the end of 2026, and the destination is significantly lower than where crude sits today. The agency’s updated outlook, published June 8, forecasts Brent crude averaging $87 per barrel for the full year but settling around $70 per barrel from September onward as oversupply conditions reassert themselves.

The summer spike and the fall that follows

Brent crude is expected to trade between $100 and $110 per barrel during the May-to-July window, driven largely by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow waterway handles roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply on any given day, and it has been effectively closed for shipping for about five months.

Fitch’s base case assumes the Strait reopens around the end of July 2026. Once it does, the agency expects prices to drop to roughly $80 per barrel in August as the market digests the return of supply. From September through year-end, the forecast settles at approximately $70 per barrel as oversupply conditions take hold.

Fitch updated its oil sector outlook to “improving” alongside the report. From a credit perspective, clarity is improvement. Companies can plan around $70 oil. They struggle to plan around $70-or-maybe-$110 oil.

The binary risk nobody wants to talk about

Fitch Managing Director Angelina Valavina described the risk profile as “binary.” If the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen on schedule, or if geopolitical tensions escalate further, prices could remain elevated well above the $87 average. Fitch explicitly noted that risks are skewed to the downside, meaning the agency considers a sub-$70 outcome more likely than a sustained spike above forecasts.

What this means for crypto and risk assets

Energy-intensive proof-of-work mining operations have a direct exposure here. Lower energy costs improve margins for Bitcoin miners, potentially reducing selling pressure as miners need to liquidate fewer coins to cover operational expenses.

If you’re managing a diversified portfolio that includes crypto exposure, Fitch’s oil forecast is worth monitoring for what it signals about the broader monetary and inflation environment heading into late 2026. Investors should watch the Strait of Hormuz reopening timeline as a leading indicator for how the back half of 2026 plays out across asset classes.

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