Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fall in June, led by Japan, UK, China

The three largest foreign holders of US government debt all pulled back in June, trimming a combined $61 billion from their Treasury positions and sending total foreign holdings down to $9.299 trillion from $9.371 trillion in May.

The Treasury International Capital data, released August 17, paints a picture of cooling global appetite for American IOUs. Net Treasury inflows collapsed from $56.6 billion in May to just $6.8 billion in June, a 88% drop that’s hard to dismiss as routine portfolio rebalancing.

The big three step back

Japan remains the world’s largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, but its enthusiasm is waning. Tokyo held $1.116 trillion in June, down from $1.143 trillion in May, a 2.3% monthly decline. For context, Japan’s holdings peaked at $1.325 trillion in November 2021, meaning the country has shed roughly $209 billion in Treasuries over the past four and a half years.

The United Kingdom, the second-largest holder, trimmed its position by about 1% to $939.9 billion from $948.6 billion. The UK’s Treasury holdings are widely viewed as a proxy for global hedge fund flows, since many offshore funds custody their assets through London.

Then there’s China, where the numbers tell the most striking story. Beijing cut its holdings by 4% in a single month, dropping from $659.3 billion in May to $633.4 billion in June. That marks the lowest level of Chinese Treasury holdings since September 2008, which, for anyone keeping score, was the month Lehman Brothers collapsed. On a year-over-year basis, China’s stake is down more than 13%.

Together, Japan, the UK, and China account for over 31% of total US publicly held debt held by foreign entities.

The yield implications

The drop in net inflows is particularly notable. Going from $56.6 billion to $6.8 billion in one month doesn’t necessarily mean foreigners are dumping Treasuries en masse. It means they’re buying far less new paper while letting some existing holdings mature without reinvesting.

Total foreign holdings are still up 2.3% on a year-over-year basis, meaning the broader trend hasn’t fully reversed. But the concentration risk is real: when the top holders representing nearly a third of the foreign base all move in the same direction in the same month, the 2.3% annual growth figure offers cold comfort.

The TIC data captures holdings primarily through US custodians and broker-dealers, which means it doesn’t always reflect the full picture of beneficial ownership.

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