Funerals held in Gaza for pregnant woman, children killed in Israeli attack

Funerals were held for a pregnant woman and her two children killed in an Israeli attack on a designated safe zone in Gaza. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market sits at 5.5% YES.

The attack is part of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, with repeated ceasefire violations. The June 30 market for Netanyahu stepping down dropped from 6% a day ago. The April 30 market is essentially flat at 0.2% YES, with just 6 days to resolve. The June 30 sub-market trades at 5.5% YES, a slight decrease from yesterday’s 6%. Traders are not pricing in an imminent political shift.

Daily trading volume on the June 30 market is $1,423 in USDC, with $9,495 needed to move the price 5 points. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point drop. The market is stable, with no major new bets driving price changes.

The funerals add to ongoing pressure on Netanyahu’s government and could strain his coalition. But without a specific catalyst like a coalition partner withdrawal or a Knesset no-confidence vote, the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down remains low. At 6¢, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu exits by June 30, a 16.67x return. Traders betting on his departure would need to believe a major political shift is imminent.

Watch for statements from Israeli political figures like Benny Gantz or signs of coalition fracture. Internal political moves could shift these markets quickly.

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