GENIUS Act could impact Tether’s $10B treasury earnings

Tether earns roughly $10 billion annually from U.S. Treasuries, and the GENIUS Act could force changes to that model. The USDC depeg market for December 31 sits at 3.6% YES.

Market reaction

The GENIUS Act’s potential mandate for yield sharing directly threatens Tether’s revenue structure, which raises depeg risk for stablecoins including USDC. All December 31 stablecoin depeg sub-markets show identical odds, which means traders are treating the GENIUS Act’s impact as uniform across stablecoins rather than singling out any one issuer.

Why it matters

Tether has already moved to hedge against regulatory risk by partnering with Anchorage Digital Bank to launch a compliant USA₮ stablecoin. This dual stablecoin strategy could absorb some of the regulatory shock, but it also exposes how dependent Tether’s current model is on keeping treasury yields entirely for itself.

Volume in these markets is zero, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. A single large order could move prices sharply in either direction. The absence of any trading activity reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the GENIUS Act will be enforced and what it would actually mean for Tether’s operations.

What to watch

At 3.6¢ per YES share, a correct bet pays $1 if a depeg occurs, a 27.78x return. That payout ratio prices in low probability but large upside for anyone betting that regulatory pressure breaks the current stablecoin equilibrium.

Watch for regulatory clarifications around the GENIUS Act, updates on Tether’s Anchorage Digital Bank partnership, and any statements from major stablecoin issuers or the U.S. Treasury. Any of these could move odds quickly in a market with no liquidity buffer.

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