Global DRAM supply to meet only 60% of demand through 2027: Nikkei Asia

Nikkei Asia reports that global DRAM supply may only meet 60% of demand through 2027. The market on whether NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 86.5% YES, up from 84% a day ago.

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are reallocating DRAM production to AI-driven memory, tightening supply for traditional markets. Because NVIDIA designs the GPUs that consume high-bandwidth memory (HBM), constrained DRAM supply for conventional uses could widen the gap between NVIDIA’s revenue growth and that of companies tied to traditional computing. The June 30 market reflects this, with traders pricing in NVIDIA’s lead over Apple, Microsoft, and other contenders.

The June 30 market has $6,703 in daily USDC volume, with a 4-point spike at 4:19 PM pushing odds from 86% to 90%. Moving the odds 5 points requires $9,363, which suggests concentrated, high-conviction positioning rather than thin-book noise. The December 31 market for Microsoft sits at 0.8% YES, showing little confidence in any challenger overtaking NVIDIA by year-end.

The memory reallocation matters for NVIDIA specifically because HBM chips used in its H100 and B200 GPUs are the product Samsung and SK Hynix are prioritizing. At 86.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if NVIDIA holds the top spot on June 30, a potential 1.16x return. For this to hold, NVIDIA needs to keep its market cap above Apple ($3.4T range) through the end of the month.

Watch for NVIDIA earnings and any guidance revisions from Apple or Microsoft. A single quarter of weaker-than-expected data center revenue, or a surprise product announcement from a competitor, could compress that 86.5% quickly.

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