Haredi draft bill debates resume as Israeli coalition faces dissolution risk

## Market Snapshot Israeli Parliament Dissolution market currently prices a 51.5% YES outcome for dissolution by June 30, up from 40% in the last 24 hours. The Netanyahu Out market for the end of 2026 is priced at 50.5% YES, showing little movement from 50% a day earlier.

## Key Takeaways – The resumption of debates on the Haredi draft bill appears to increase the risk of Knesset dissolution. – Coalition tensions suggest a heightened possibility of Netanyahu’s government facing instability. – The ongoing debates have little impact on Israel-Indonesia normalization markets, maintaining a lower probability of changes.

## Article Body The Israeli Knesset has resumed debates on the controversial ultra-Orthodox draft bill amidst a deepening coalition crisis, potentially leading to the dissolution of parliament. The draft bill, which focuses on the military conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews, has placed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition under significant strain. Haredi factions within the coalition are threatening to support the dissolution of parliament if their demands are not met, adding pressure to the already fragile alliance. This development comes as Israel remains embroiled in conflict in Gaza, making the resolution of the draft issue both a political and military priority. The resumption of debates indicates an attempt to push forward legislation that could redefine army manpower and the status of Haredi exemptions.

## Market Interpretation The renewed discussions on the Haredi draft bill are consistent with scenarios suggesting an increased likelihood of Knesset dissolution, supportive of a YES outcome in the Israeli Parliament Dissolution market. This development has a high impact on the market, as it could lead to significant political shifts. In contrast, the news has a moderate impact on the Netanyahu Out market, indicating potential instability in his government but not an immediate threat to his position.

## What to Watch Key political actors such as Aryeh Deri and Moshe Gafni may influence the coalition’s stability depending on their stance on the draft bill. Netanyahu’s ability to secure coalition support or negotiate a compromise will be crucial in determining whether the Knesset faces dissolution. Watch for any public statements or actions by these leaders, as well as any scheduled votes on dissolution. Additionally, the response from the Israel Defense Forces regarding conscription policies could further impact the political landscape.

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Netanyahu out bullish

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