HBAR’s Still Dragging — But Is a Rebound Hiding in Plain Sight?

• HBAR’s down 40% in a month, sitting around $0.16, but flashing a familiar falling wedge pattern.
• Momentum’s weak, with the MACD still in the red and price trapped under the EMAs — not great signs yet.
• If momentum flips and key resistance breaks, $0.22 to $0.28 could be back on the table. But fail the breakout, and $0.12 becomes the next likely stop.

Let’s be honest — Hedera (HBAR) hasn’t exactly been killing it this year.

While some folks were expecting fireworks, all we’ve really gotten is a slow burn. As of now, HBAR’s floating around $0.16, which is down a brutal 40% from just a month ago. Not great.

But… is there a twist coming?

Maybe. The charts are doing that thing again — you know, where it almost looks like a breakout, but everyone’s too scarred to believe it.

The Setup’s Familiar — But Will It Deliver This Time?

Let’s rewind for a sec.

Back in January, HBAR was hanging around $0.38. Then it started slipping. Hard. By late Feb, it had collapsed to $0.20, and that selloff carved out a falling wedge pattern — which is usually considered bullish (when it actually works).

And hey, it worked! The wedge snapped to the upside, and HBAR rallied to $0.28 on March 2. Cue the applause.

Now fast forward. HBAR has done it again — same kind of wedge, just… lower. But here’s the catch: last time, the MACD (that’s the momentum indicator) flipped green. This time? Still red.

Which kinda kills the buzz. A bearish MACD means momentum’s still in the mud, and until that flips — well, let’s just say a clean rally might not be on the menu yet.

What the Analysts Are Saying (Hint: It’s Mixed)

According to Carl Moon, who’s been tracking HBAR’s every move like a hawk, we’re “right there.” His call? Once price breaks out of the wedge again, we could be looking at a push back up to $0.38.

“HBAR’s been locked in this daily falling wedge since Dec ‘24. Once it flips, the target’s $0.38,” he said on X. Simple enough.

But the chart’s not giving the all-clear yet. Zoom out a bit, and you’ll see HBAR’s stuck under the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) — with the 50 EMA sitting above the 20 EMA. That’s known as a death cross, and yeah… it’s not good.

If HBAR can’t break through that barrier? We might be heading back down to $0.12, no sugarcoating it.

What Needs to Happen Now

For this thing to flip bullish again, we need a few things:

• MACD has to go green
• Price needs to close above the wedge
• Break the 20 EMA, or risk more chop and bleed

If those pieces line up, we could see a climb toward $0.22, and maybe — if the broader market decides to stop sulking — even $0.28, which lines up near the 0.382 Fibonacci level.

But right now? It’s still in limbo.