House fails to end Trump’s Iran war, resolution defeated by one vote

The House narrowly failed to pass a resolution ending Trump’s war in Iran, losing 213-214 by a single vote. The US-Iran ceasefire announcement market is at 9.0% YES, down from 33% a week ago.

The one-vote defeat means conflict continues under Trump’s authority, keeping pressure on the ceasefire announcement market. The ceasefire expires next week, with April 21 just five days away. The market’s term structure shows steep downward pressure.

In the Trump Visit to China market, odds for an April 30 visit are at 1.1% YES, while May 31 is at 85.5% YES. The House resolution’s failure may pull Trump’s attention away from diplomacy, dampening near-term expectations for a China visit.

The US declaration of war on Iran market (by December 31) is at 8% YES. The 213-214 split shows Congress is almost evenly divided on war powers, which could feed further tensions and raise the probability of formal escalation.

Daily USDC volume in the ceasefire market is $2,128, with $2,103 needed to move the price 5 points. A market this thin can swing sharply on a single large trade.

The failed resolution keeps the status quo under Trump’s authority. A YES share in the ceasefire market at 9¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire breaks, a 11x return. That bet requires the ceasefire to break within five days.

Watch for White House or Pentagon announcements on military posture, and any congressional statements or scheduled votes on war powers. These could move these markets quickly.

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