How Will Markets React to Today’s $2.5B Bitcoin Options Expiry?

Around 26,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Feb. 7, and they have a notional value of roughly $2.5 billion.

This week’s expiry event is about a third of the size of last week’s month-ending mammoth one. Therefore, there is likely to be a minimal influence on spot markets, which have retreated this week.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.58, meaning that there are many more call (long) contracts expiring than puts (shorts). The max pain point, or price where most losses will be made, is $99,500.

Moreover, open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, is highest at the $120,000 strike price, which is $1.7 billion, according to Deribit.

There is also around $1.3 billion in OI at the $110,000 strike price, as derivatives traders continue to speculate that prices will rise from current levels in the longer term.

Earlier this week, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live said, “The market is now very divided, with BTC being strongly supported by funding from both inside and outside the crypto.”

It added that altcoins, represented by ETH, “are losing money violently, the vast majority of cryptocurrency prices have shrunk significantly, and the altcoin season that market was expecting has not arrived.”

“But we can see from the options data BTC and ETH skew have maintained a positive value. The giant whale also bought a large number of call options in the pullback, indicating that the market is still optimistic about the future as a whole,”

Skew refers to the difference in implied volatility (IV) between call and put options or across different strike prices and expirations.

7 Feb Options Data
26,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.58, a Maxpain point of $99,500 and a notional value of $2.54 billion.
203,000 ETH options expired with Put Call Ratio of 0.46, Maxpain point of $2,950 and notional value of $560 million.
Market sentiment was… pic.twitter.com/UbN9mtdrJ6

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) February 7, 2025

In addition to today’s tranche of Bitcoin options, around 203,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring with a notional value of $560 million, a put/call ratio of 0.46, and a max pain of $2,950.

This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $3 billion.

Crypto Market Still Retreating

Total market capitalization has fallen just below 2% on the day to $3.3 trillion. However, it remains at the lower lines of a range-bound channel that formed in mid-November.

Bitcoin dipped below $96,000 in an intraday low in late trading on Thursday but managed to recover marginally to reach $97,400 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. The asset has been down-trending for the past week, having lost 7% since the same time last week.

There is still no love for Ethereum, which fell 3% to below $2,700 early on Friday and appears to be struggling to reclaim it.

The altcoins were a sea of red, with only Tron (TRX) bucking the trend with a 4.5% gain on the day.

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