Hollywood studios reportedly bar staff from prediction market bets

What happened

Hollywood studios and production companies have been quietly circulating guidelines that prohibit employees from wagering on prediction markets, according to a report Thursday from The Hollywood Reporter, as relayed by Decrypt and Bitcoin.com News.

The warnings cover bets on matters employees might know about through their work, including studio earnings, casting choices and release dates. The guidelines also bar staff from sharing such information with friends or relatives so that those people can place bets instead, the report said. The outlets did not identify the studios involved.

At least one company has reportedly established a hotline allowing employees to report colleagues suspected of betting anonymously, according to the accounts.

The Hollywood Reporter added that its own parent, Penske Media, has revised its employee handbook in recent weeks to prohibit betting on "award nominations, casting decisions, production timelines and release dates." Penske also owns Variety, Deadline and Dick Clark Productions, Bitcoin.com News noted.

Why it matters

The guidelines carry long-standing insider-trading restrictions from stock markets into prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can wager on subjects ranging from the next James Bond to reality-show eliminations. As those markets expand into entertainment, more employers face questions about how confidential workplace information may be used, the reports said.

Joshua Mitts, a Columbia University law professor who studies prediction markets, told The Hollywood Reporter that there is now "an explosion in the number of employers who have to think about insider trading rules from an ethical standpoint," according to both outlets.

Enforcement is another matter. Mitts said that on blockchain-based platforms it can be "basically impossible" to trace a trader who knows how to use a mixer and layer intermediaries to conceal identity, the reports said. He also suggested that entertainment markets, given their potential for insider trading and what he described as low social benefit, could be candidates for regulatory attention.

What the data shows

The reports cite a handful of figures: a $20,000 fine and about $5,000 in gains in the MrBeast case, and $4.15 billion in notional volume on Kalshi on Election Day, Nov. 3, which Bitcoin.com News described as the platform's biggest weekday yet. The Hollywood Reporter also noted that U.S. law explicitly bans futures contracts on just two things: onions, under the Onion Futures Act of 1958, and movie box office receipts.

Background

Concerns about leaks in entertainment markets are not new. BetOnline temporarily withdrew its market on the next James Bond this week after a burst of "sharp money" moved actor Callum Turner ahead of longtime favorite Jack Lowden, according to a representative cited by the outlets, fueling suspicion that the wagers reflected a credible leak.

Earlier enforcement actions have also drawn attention. Kalshi said a video editor at MrBeast's company made roughly $5,000 using confidential information to bet on MrBeast content; the editor was fired and fined $20,000, the reports said. Bitcoin.com News described the trades as about $4,000 and said Beast Industries called the conduct unacceptable. The Hollywood Reporter also pointed to an April Puck column about someone who worked on a CBS competition show making money through prediction markets.

Federal prosecutors have brought cases as well. In April, an active-duty U.S. soldier was charged with using classified information about the raid to capture Nicolás Maduro to bet on Polymarket, and in May a Google engineer was charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering over Polymarket bets allegedly placed with confidential company data. Both cases are pending, the reports said.

Other institutions have acted too. California, New York and Illinois have barred state employees from using nonpublic information to bet on prediction markets, and Polymarket has investigated dozens of bets tied to the U.S. midterm elections, according to the reports. Apple's updated insider-trading policy, filed with its annual report on Nov. 3, bars employees from using confidential information to trade on prediction markets or tipping others, Bitcoin.com News reported.

What is still unclear

The reports do not name the studios or production companies issuing the guidelines, nor do they specify how the rules will be enforced or what penalties employees might face. It is also unclear how many companies have adopted such policies or how the anonymous hotlines will operate.

What to watch

Attention is likely to focus on whether regulators take up Mitts's suggestion that entertainment markets could face scrutiny, and on how prediction platforms tighten surveillance. Lawmakers are already asking questions: Sens. Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis sent an Oct. 28 letter pressing Kalshi and Polymarket on how they police election insider trading, and the owner of the Ballon d'Or moved to file a complaint over suspect Polymarket bets that called the award's top five finishers, per Bitcoin.com News.

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